Thursday briefing: ​What difference will the ceasefire in the Middle East make, and will it hold?

In today’s newsletter: The truce offers a reprieve after weeks of turmoil, ​b​ut unresolved disputes and competing interpretations ​of what was agreed, threaten to pull the region back toward crisis​ at a moment’s notice

Good morning. On Tuesday, just an hour before the deadline imposed by Donald Trump for Iran to reopen navigation in the strait of Hormuz or face a wave of “civilisation-ending” strikes, a two-week pause in hostilities was announced. After weeks of US and Israeli attacks on Tehran, and Iranian retaliation across the region, the news prompted relief among world leaders.

But unanswered questions are piling up. Israel’s assault on Lebanon continues, with Trump describing that conflict as a separate skirmish not included in the deal, despite Iran seeming to think otherwise. Overnight the US president has used social media to warn that “the ‘shootin’ starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before” unless Tehran complies with “the real agreement”.

Middle East | The fate of the two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict looked in peril as both sides gave divergent versions of what had been agreed. Iran halted the passage of oil tankers because of an alleged Israeli ceasefire breach.

Middle East | Israel carried out its largest attack on Lebanon since its war with Hezbollah began, killing at least 254 people and wounding 837.

Middle East | The UK has a “job” to help reopen the strait of Hormuz, Keir Starmer said on arriving in the Middle East, as Iranian reports said the key shipping route was closed again just hours after the supposed US-Iran ceasefire.

Ukraine | The US has ignored compelling evidence that Russia has been helping Iran to target US bases in the Middle East because it misguidedly “trusts” Vladimir Putin, according to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Education | Many English universities are taking excessive financial risks with borrowing and expansion of student numbers, threatening not only their own survival but that of others in the sector, the thinktank Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) has warned.

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