The chilling warning every Australian should read as China builds military capable of striking our cities - and they won't even need bombs to bring us down

By CAITLIN POWELL - NEWS REPORTER Published: 01:53, 4 August 2026 | Updated: 01:57, 4 August 2026 China's rapidly expanding military could soon be able to strike Australia with missiles, experts warn, as experts predict Beijing's growing arsenal will reshape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific by 2035. The confronting report from the Lowy Institute warns the threat of a direct attack on Australia is 'real and growing', citing China's expanding fleet of warships, submarines, heavy bombers and nuclear weapons. The report said any attack would depend on Beijing's strategic objective, outlining a series of scenarios ranging from symbolic strikes designed to intimidate Australia to widespread attacks targeting critical infrastructure and the nation's political leadership.  'China's motive for attacking Australia could be broader or simply different from degrading its military capabilities,' the report said. 'Military action against Australia could occur as part of a larger war involving the US or as a limited campaign to coerce Australia. 'If China merely sought to send a warning, it might strike an offshore oil facility or occupy it with personnel from a coast guard vessel. 'If it sought to achieve economic effects against Australia, it might attack ports, airports, bridges and railway facilities. 'If it sought to coerce the government by punishing the Australian population, as Russia is now doing in Ukraine, it might use missiles or cyber weapons against public infrastructure such as the energy network. China’s military growth by 2035 could have significant implications for Australia  China is expected to triple the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal by 2035, according to a report by the Lowy Institute in June  No institution will be more influential to Indo-Pacific security in coming decades than China’s military, experts said. (Pictured: Chinese President Xi Jinping)  'If the intent was "decapitation" of Australia's political leadership - again, something Russia has attempted in Ukraine - targets would include government buildings and residences.' The scenarios form part of a broader Lowy Institute assessment in June that China's rapid military expansion over the next decade will fundamentally reshape Australia's security environment. 'No institution will be more influential to Indo-Pacific security in coming decades than China's military - the People's Liberation Army (PLA),' the researchers said. They warned China can already threaten Australia's trade routes, undersea communications infrastructure and critical systems through cyber operations without ever firing a weapon at the Australian mainland. 'China can already threaten Australia's trade routes, its undersea communications infrastructure and its critical systems through cyber operations - none of which requires a weapon to reach the Australian landmass,' they said. 'The direct strike threat is real and growing, primarily through missiles fired from surface ships, submarines and potentially from Chinese territory.' The report said Beijing's shipbuilding capacity is now more than 200 times greater than that of the United States, while China could also become one of the world's leading producers of heavy bombers. 'China is expected to triple the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal by 2035,' the researchers added. A long-range ballistic missile bursts out of the sea during a test launched from a Chinese submarine in the South Pacific on July 6  Strategic Analysis Australia director Michael Shoebridge told the Daily Mail he was alarmed by the findings. 'The Chinese have a range of weapons that can reach Australia from mainland China, and a range of others they can launch from their warships and submarines,' he said. 'There's very little in our military that can do anything about that.' He added that cyber and maritime threats have real-world consequences for everyday Australians. 'Think about this. The Iranian economy is now being badly damaged because the US Navy is blockading its ports. Well, the Chinese Navy can blockade Australian ports,' he said. Lowy said the growing PLA Navy was a concern for Australia, not only from a security perspective but also an economic one. 'Beyond its ability to project power against the Australian landmass, China's surface fleet already poses a significant threat to Australia's maritime trade,' the researchers said. 'Much of this trade passes through the sea lanes of the Indonesian archipelago. Philippine Navy personnel and China Coast Guard personnel clash near a grounded Philippine warship at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on July 20  'Operating from bases in the South China Sea, PLAN surface vessels could threaten these lanes, with potential interdiction alone likely to raise insurance premiums, deter commercial shipping and inflict broader economic damage on Australia.' 'As China's submarine fleet grows in size and sophistication, its ability to use these platforms to strike targets on the Australian mainland will also grow.' Mr Shoebridge said the significance of this threat could not be ignored due to Australia's dependence on maritime trade. 'Being able to threaten shipping going to and from Australia is a huge economic and strategic lever - and the Chinese have built a blue water navy now,' he said. 'For years, they seemed content to have a navy that could operate closer to China, but they now have the capability to send it anywhere in the world, and they are increasingly sending it into our neighbourhood.' The Lowy Institute's warning preceded two significant incidents close to Australian waters. In July, Foreign Minister Penny Wong accused Beijing of 'destabilising and risky' behaviour after an incident between the China Coast Guard (CCG) and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). Earlier in the month, the PLA Navy launched a ballistic missile carrying a simulated training warhead into the Pacific Ocean, with a reported range capable of reaching as far as Brisbane.  Military expert Michael Shoebridge said the Australian government’s best work has been to write that geography no longer protects the country. (Pictured: Foreign Minister Penny Wong)  'We seem to have got used to the Chinese military and coast guard behaving aggressively and dangerously,' Mr Shoebridge said. 'It's actually disturbing and dangerous. There's potential for conflict to break out when things go badly wrong. There's also the potential for damage or death.' Sources earlier claimed the ballistic missile launch was in retaliation to Fiji's new defence deal with Australia as Beijing seeks greater influence in the region.  'The Pacific presents several strategic opportunities for China, from access to much-needed resources such as fish stocks, timber and critical minerals to geostrategic objectives such as displacing the US in its near region and complicating US and allied contingency planning,' Center for Strategic and International Studies Australia chair Charles Edel said. Lowy warned that cyberattacks will precede any major conflict. 'China's cyber actors were detected operating within US medical, telecommunications and other critical infrastructure networks, pre-positioned for activation in a crisis rather than for immediate exploitation,' they said. 'This is analogous to pre-positioning submarines, surface vessels or missiles ahead of a conflict. Australia is not insulated from these operations. 'The Australian Signals Directorate has confirmed state-sponsored Chinese cyber actors are actively targeting Australian critical infrastructure networks.' But Mr Shoebridge (pictured) criticised the lack of information on security threats This was a concern raised by Mr Shoebridge, who said hackers can potentially use Chinese-made artificial intelligence software to access technology systems.  'They own the system and can speak to the company that wrote the code and go through the front door without having to find the back door,' he said.  'It's on the public record from governments around the world that Chinese-based entities have hacked critical infrastructure, government information systems, power systems, water systems, banking systems and more hardcore military companies and systems - and either put malicious code there that gives them access to those internal system controls, or stolen key information.' Lowy said 'dramatic modernisation' of the PLA directly impacts Australia's security. 'The threat to Australia's security extends well beyond China's capacity to strike Australian territory,' they said.  'The growing reach and capability of the PLA have already eroded the military advantage of Australia's ally, the US, and sharply increased the threat to Taiwan. 'Combined with its island-building campaign, China's build-up has made it the dominant military power in the South China Sea, creating conditions for a regional arms race that could itself damage Australian interests.' Little has been published publicly about potential threats posed by China to Australia and how these could evolve, the researchers added. But Mr Shoebridge said he was more concerned at the little material progress Australia has made in shoring up its defence. 'The government's best work has been to write that geography no longer protects Australia,' he said. 'Its real failure has been doing nothing to provide effective air and missile defense in a timely way. 'China is getting large numbers of different types of long-range weapons and they include ones that can reach Australia now. 'We have no missile defense capability apart from three air warfare destroyers, a small number of ships and some very short-range systems.' As a result, Mr Shoebridge said Australia is 'wide open to Chinese coercion'. 'They could send a symbolic missile anywhere in the country to make a point,' he said. 'It would be good to get more ships into our surface fleet, and some are coming, but far too slowly.' When it comes to cyberattacks, Mr Shoebridge pointed to the Australian Government's decision to spend almost $10billion over 10 years on the Australian Signals Directorate to strengthen the nation's cyber defences and broader military capabilities. But he warned the funding does not adequately cover artificial intelligence, saying Australia urgently needs to invest in AI to keep pace with emerging threats.