Restore Britain could hand Andy Burnham Makerfield by-election victory but undecideds still key, new poll says

Published: 15:47, 13 June 2026 | Updated: 15:51, 13 June 2026 Restore Britain could hand Andy Burnham by-election victory in Makerfield by splitting the right wing vote with undecided voters set to play a crucial role. A new poll highlights the current hairbreadth margin between Manchester Mayor and PM hopeful Burnham and Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon. Kenyon is trailing Burnham by just five points on 40 to Burnham's 45 percent with less than a week to go until the poll in the Manchester suburb which has become a testbed for Burnham's leadership ambitions. Such a narrow margin means growing support for Rupert Lowe's right wing Restore could see victory snatched from Nigel Farage's party, according to a survey by More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab. The gap between Labour and Reform at the top of the poll means that the 8 percent electorate share Restore is currently forecast to take will be the difference between victory and defeat for Reform. But the latest research of a sample of 515 adults in Makerfield on who they will choose in next Thursday's poll crucially also reveals more than one in ten of them have yet to decide who to put their cross by. Meanwhile Restore Britain posted pictures on social media of leader Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth, with the party's local candidate Rebecca Shepherd and several hundred people at a rally in Makerfield today refuting suggestions their party was just 'one man with a social media account'. If the poll is representative of how the constituency will vote, it also means the Restore vote will easily outstrip that of the Greens on 3 percent, the Conservatives on 2 percent and the Lib Dems on one percent.  Such a narrow margin means growing support for Rupert Lowe's (above) right wing Restore could see victory snatched from Nigel Farage's party  The gap between Labour and Reform at the top of the poll means that the 8 percent electorate share Restore is currently forecast to take will be the difference between victory and defeat for Reform They will also be the only party of the four to keep their deposit, according to the poll carried out for today's Times. Restore Britain, which was set up last year and became an official party in February, has also been buoyed by support on X from Elon Musk, who became the world's first trillionaire yesterday. Musk posted support on his social media platform for the party last month. In a boost for Burnham's campaign, the new poll also rates him as the most popular of the candidates and more popular than the PM and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. He emerged with a net favourability score of 7 percent with 44 per cent of voters having a favourable view and 36 per cent viewing him unfavourably. Mr Kenyon, a local plumber, was viewed favourably by 25 percent of those polled and Mr Farage by 31 percent. But only just over one in ten of Makerfield locals – 13 percent – viewed Sir Keir Starmer favourably in another death knell for the PM. Policy issues are also set to be a battleground as the fight enters the final week with 43 percent saying the economy and cost of living was the most important issue to them when voting, ahead of immigration and asylum on 35 percent and the NHS on 29 percent. More in Common's Luke Tryl said Andy Burnham 'appeared to have the advantage entering the final week of the Makerfield by-election' but the number of undecided voters 'could prove pivotal'. The comments below have not been moderated. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.