Reform UK extends its polling lead over Labour to nine points ahead of crucial Makerfield by-election - while voters would prefer Tony Blair as PM to Keir Starmer or Andy Burnham

By GREG HEFFER, POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT Published: 12:22, 7 June 2026 | Updated: 12:24, 7 June 2026 Reform UK has extended its national polling lead over Labour to nine points ahead of the crucial Makerfield by-election. A new Opinium survey showed Nigel Farage's party is supported by 29 per cent of voters - up two percentage points since last month and Reform's highest share in three months, since early March. Labour remained on 20 per cent support, while the Conservatives are on 17 per cent, the Greens on 14 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 11 per cent. The positive polling news will boost morale within Reform's ranks ahead of the Makerfield contest on 18 June. Mr Farage is hoping to win the Greater Manchester seat from Labour following his party's success in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last year. The Makerfield vote has been dubbed the most consequential by-election of recent times after Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, was selected as Labour's candidate in the seat. If he wins the by-election, Mr Burnham has vowed to go on and challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership with a view to replacing him as Prime Minister. But the Opinium poll suggested voters are unenthusiastic about the prospect of Mr Burnham entering Downing Street, with more likely to believe Tony Blair would make a better PM than any of Labour's current leading figures. A new Opinium survey showed Reform UK is supported by 29 per cent of voters - up two percentage points since last month and the party's highest share in three months Tony Blair received a net rating of -6 when voters were asked whether he did a good or bad job as PM, making him less popular than Margaret Thatcher (+14) and John Major (+5) Sir Tony - who recently made an explosive intervention amid Labour's infighting - was shown to hold a substantial lead over Sir Keir, with 39 per cent saying the ex-premier would do a better job than the current PM. This compared with just 16 per cent who think Sir Tony, who was Labour premier between 1997 and 2007, would do worse than Sir Keir. Sir Tony also comfortably leads Wes Streeting, another potential challenger to Sir Keir, and is narrowly preferred to Mr Burnham when voters are asked who would make a better PM. In a 5,600-word essay last month, Sir Tony accused his party of retreating into a Left-wing 'comfort zone' with no 'coherent plan' for transforming Britain. He also urged Labour MPs to 'force people to say where they stand' if they do attempt to oust Sir Keir and push for a leadership contest. The ex-premier took a swipe at both Mr Burnham and Mr Streeting as they eye up replacing Sir Keir, which prompted them both to hit back at Sir Tony as Labour's civil war deepened. Despite the Opinium survey suggesting many voters remain unconvinced that Labour’s current generation offers an improvement on the party’s recent past, it also found that voters hold a negative view of Sir Tony's record as PM. He received a net rating of -6 when voters were asked whether he did a good or bad job as PM, making him less popular than Margaret Thatcher (+14) and John Major (+5). Opinium's James Crouch said: 'For all the debate sparked by Tony Blair and the 'hot essay summer', the public still lean towards saying he was a bad rather than a good PM. 'Perhaps more worrying for Labour, they also struggle to see any of the party's current leadership contenders as offering a markedly better alternative.' The poll also found voters are most likely to approve of Tory leader Kemi Badenoch's response to the Henry Nowak murder. The 18-year-old was handcuffed by police who ignored his pleas that he had been stabbed as he lay dying after his killer, Vickrum Digwa, claimed to have been the victim of a racist attack. Mrs Badenoch recorded a net approval score of +12 on her handling of the issue, while Lib Dem leader Ed Davey had a marginally positive response. Sir Keir, Green leader Zack Polanski and Mr Farage all received net negative ratings. Mr Farage received the weakest assessment overall, with more respondents disapproving than approving of his response. The Reform leader said people should respond with 'pure cold rage' to Mr Nowak's treatment, which he claimed was evidence of a 'two-tier culture'. He was accused by political opponents of stoking racial tensions with his remarks, following riots in Southampton near to where the murder took place in December. No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. 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