Our Financial System Is Working On A False Assumption That Nature Is Stable

InnovationSustainabilityOur Financial System Is Working On A False Assumption That Nature Is StableByNina Seega,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I am the Sustainable Finance Director at Cambridge University's CISLFollow AuthorJun 11, 2026, 04:23am EDT (Photo by LUIS ACOSTA/AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty ImagesIn 2023, after severe droughts hit the Amazon, giant barges loaded with EU-bound commodities ran aground on a river that had disappeared beneath them. The droughts disrupted important navigation routes, forcing river transport to drop by up to 50 percent. The knock on effect saw freight tariffs double and one of Brazil’s largest water transport companies, Hidrovias do Brasil, reported over $100 million net loss in 2024 alone. Many will have viewed this as a local climate event. But this story is not an isolated or a local case. It’s part of a growing pattern, symptomatic of a deepening crisis threatening agricultural equities, sovereign bonds, and credit quality simultaneously.Supply chain pricing and trade finance are built on the assumption that natural systems - rivers, rainfall, soils - are stable. That assumption is not only wrong; it’s actively destroying business as we know it and undermining efforts to tackle the twin biodiversity and climate crises.Nature and climate risks are intensifying We have breached seven of nine planetary boundaries and extreme weather and climate-related disasters are escalating in severity, frequency, and impact. In the last few months alone, several major institutions have raised the alarm that destructive use of ecosystem resources could plunge us into another financial crisis.The UK’s Joint Intelligence Committee assessment, drawing on analysis from MI5 and MI6, found strong consensus that ecosystem loss is a serious, direct threat to national security, capable of lowering GDP by 12 percent by 2030 and causing widespread economic disruption. The Institute and Facult...