Yes, the United States was treated unfairly by the controversial Folarin Balogun red card decision

The USMNT is through to the round of 16 after winning their first knockout stage game at a World Cup since 2002. By any measure, the 2026 tournament has been a resounding success, both for the United States as a host, and for U.S. soccer.

For the first time in, well, maybe forever, the U.S. Men's National Team looks, at times, dominant. They control play and control possession. They're threading through balls at an elite international level. They've outscored their opponents 8-1 with their starting 11 on the field. Malik Tillman's free kick goal to cement the 2-0 win over Bosnia & Herzegovina was world class.

And it all might be taken away by absurd, unfair officiating.

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Folarin Balogun's red card came as the result of a series of ridiculous, unforgivable errors from the officials in this match. And the players, coaches, and fans have noticed and pointed out what the laughable "process" has done to the legitimacy of FIFA's officiating staff.

The biggest mistake? That the decision to go to VAR was made in the first place. Andy Davies, a referee who worked in the Premier League and Championship and was a Select Group referee for over 12 seasons, published a short analysis of the VAR process on this play for ESPN, saying that the review should never have taken place.

"VAR made their recommendation to the referee based on slow-motion and still replays, which is not aligned with VAR protocols, as these should be used for only point-of-contact purposes in a red card tackle situation," Davies wrote.

Davies did explain that based on the letter of the rules, the tackle itself was always likely to receive a red card. But the review should never have happened, because it was only recommended based on slow-motion replays.

Importantly, too, many other similar plays have happened throughout the tournament, with no reviews or red cards given. And the players know it.

"Obviously the ref made a decision that he made, but I think it’s questionable," said USMNT star Weston McKennie after the match. "I think there’s been many other plays like that throughout the tournament on other players that a card wasn’t given at all. It’s disappointing."

The most prominent similar play? One involving Argentinian star Lionel Messi. Messi, in the early stages, went after a loose ball against Algeria, only to catch Aissa Mandi with his studs up. Algeria were awarded a free kick, but no card for Messi, and no review from VAR.

Algeria were so furious about the no call that they filed a complaint to FIFA for the poor officiating.

There have been plenty of other similar plays throughout the World Cup that also received no review. And because FIFA is FIFA, there is no process for appealing Balogun's suspension for the massive Round of 16 matchup against Belgium on Monday.

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The referee on the field, Raphael Claus, has previously been investigated for match fixing in Brazil, though of course, there's no indication that this was a motivating factor in this case. But Claus also did not see anything on the field, at full speed, to warrant a card at all, let alone a red. Only after the VAR official incorrectly used slow-motion to recommend a second look, did he send Balogun off.

Fans of the USMNT are right to be furious with this call. Not only were the rules misapplied, according to an expert referee with years of elite experience, but similar plays during this tournament have been ignored. This isn't just about Messi, but it's impossible not to see the double standard. VAR officials would never, ever, call for a review of a red card on the tournament's most famous player. But they did so against Balogun and the USMNT.

The USMNT may go on to beat Belgium on Monday, even without their star striker. Or they might get eliminated without him. The former would not excuse the referee's poor decision making and process. The latter would put a permanent stain on the 2026 World Cup and potentially damage the future of the sport in the United States. It's unlikely bordering on impossible that the USMNT win the tournament, with or without Balogun. But a loss, coming after such an absurd, farcical process, and removing the possibility of a gigantic matchup against Spain or Portugal in the quarterfinals in Los Angeles, would be unforgivable.

But for FIFA, unforgivable is just another day at the office.