Write the Conservative Party off at your peril

Last night’s by-election result in Aberdeen South shows with the right candidate and a clear message, the Conservative Party can and will win.

Whilst most of the Westminster commentariat were, understandably, focused on the grandstanding of Nigel Farage and Andy Burnham in Makerfield, our candidate, Douglas Lumsden, was out banging on doors, speaking to voters about an issue that really matters to the community he now represents: oil and gas.

First and foremost, congratulations must go to Douglas and the outstanding team of activists, party staff and volunteers who delivered this result; campaigns are won through hard yards, and that is exactly what Douglas and his team did.

But we should also be honest about what happened in Aberdeen South.

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The scale of the victory and the size of the swing were driven by something that is becoming increasingly important in British politics: tactical voting.

Most people in Aberdeen South did not want another Scottish National Party representative; faced with that choice, pro-Union voters and those who understand the importance of the oil and gas industry to the city rallied behind the Conservatives because they recognised we were the party best placed to defeat the SNP.

That lesson extends far beyond one by-election in the northeast of Scotland; as our politics becomes more fragmented, tactical voting is going to play an increasingly important role.

The era of straightforward two-party politics is behind us; voters are making more sophisticated choices about how to use their vote and who is best placed to deliver the outcome they want.

This is something Reform UK still appears not to understand. For every three people who would like to see Nigel Farage as Prime Minister, seven do not.

That simple reality goes some way towards explaining why Reform fell well short of victory in Makerfield, despite it being one of their top targets.

The excitement generated on social media and among political commentators does not always translate into votes.

Across the country, voters are increasingly reaching the conclusion, increasingly often, it is the Conservative Party best placed to win.

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We saw in the two by-elections in Essex last night, on Essex County Council and Rochford District Council.

We saw it in Hillingdon and in Mumbles in Swansea.

In communities with very different priorities and very different political traditions, voters are recognising it is the Conservatives who have a plan for their community.

And three of these focus seats were won by Conservatives from Reform UK.

Because, under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, the Conservative Party has a clear plan, a clear sense of purpose and a team focused on the issues that matter to people the length and breadth of the country.

Whether it is supporting more domestic energy production, properly funding our armed forces or cutting red tape, stamp duty and business rates for high street businesses, we are once again offering voters a clear and credible choice.

Last night’s results demonstrate the Conservative Party remains competitive and, crucially, remains capable of winning.

From Aberdeen to Hillingdon, from Essex to Swansea, voters showed last night they are prepared to back Conservative candidates when we offer serious solutions to real problems.

Last night showed we can win in every corner of the British Isles.

So, to those who take great pleasure in predicting our extinction, I would simply suggest that reports of the demise of the Conservative Party are greatly exaggerated.

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