World Cup final: Spain vs Argentina – Which team has best chance to win?

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It is hard to argue that the European champions and world number one team taking on the South American champions and World Cup holders is not a fitting finale. France had stormed into the pole position as favourites during the tournament, while England seemed to have their best chance since their only win 60 years ago. Nevertheless, there is plenty to pick through when it comes to the finalists, so Al Jazeera does exactly that: Previous World Cup appearances: 18 Best performance: Winners (1978, 1986, 2022) First appearance: 1930 (Uruguay) Overall World Cup record: P94 W53 D17 L24 F171 A103 FIFA world ranking: 3 Overview: If their 2022 challenge in Qatar got off to a shocking start, with defeat by Saudi Arabia, then the 2026 campaign for Argentina could be seen as a flyer in comparison. The truth, however, is that this has been far from a vintage Argentina, especially with Lionel Messi still the pivot of the team. The 39-year-old is, nevertheless, the reason that the title defence is ongoing. The last side to win back-to-back World Cups was Brazil in 1958 and 1962. Italy have also retained a title, so it is a very short list that Argentina are seeking to join. Strengths: Look no further than Messi for Argentina’s clear and unmatched – at least at this tournament – strength. The Inter Miami forward is set to win the Golden Boot with eight goals. The midfield trio holding in front of the back line: Enzo Fernandes, Alexis Mac Allister and Paredes, have been seen as the enforcers of the tournament, protecting Messi as much as the back line; they have even been compared to personal bodyguards for the Argentina legend. Weaknesses: Due to the weight of reliance on Messi, Argentina’s weakness has to be their ability to replace their main man. Should Messi sustain an injury, Argentina’s odds – already wide – would stretch further. They have pace and guile in Giuliano Simeone and Julian Alvarez, and goals in Lautaro Martinez; they also have power in their defence and holding midfielders, but do they have a spark without Messi? Arguably, no team at World Cup 2026 has been more reliant on one player. Form guide: Argentina have not lost a match since they were beaten 1-0 in Ecuador in a FIFA World Cup qualifying match. Since then, the South American champions have gone on a 14-game winning streak. The Argentinians rattled in eight goals as they swept the group stage of the World Cup, conceding only once – in their final game against Jordan when already qualified for the round of 32. The knockouts have proved far trickier, with 3-2 wins recorded in the last 32 and last 16, against Cape Verde and Egypt, respectively. Their progress from the quarterfinals was secured by a 3-1 win against Switzerland, but that game – much like the Cape Verde win – required extra time. The 2-1 semifinal win against England saw a second great turnaround at the tournament, having trailed the Egyptians 2-0 with 11 minutes of the 90 remaining. Players to watch: Argentina not only threw the kitchen sink at England, but they also threw the extent of their attacking talent that started on the bench. Along with Lautaro Martinez, coach Lionel Scaloni threw on Rodrigo De Paul and Nicolas Gonzalez. Although Messi is irreplaceable, the Argentinians are likely to need the full extent of the resources around him if they are to claim the win. At the other end, Lisandro Martinez remains the main man at the heart of the defence. Previous World Cup appearances: 17 Best finish: Winners (2010) Overall World Cup record: P74 W37 D18 L19 F121 A76 FIFA ranking: 1 Spain have recovered from two terrible World Cup campaigns – having not reached the quarterfinals at the last two editions – to have the chance of becoming the reigning European and World champions for the second time. The Spanish lifted the global title for the only time in their history in 2014, two years after their first continental crown. Their number one ranking by FIFA on entering the tournament is in large part based on the victory at Euro 2024. Strengths: Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, now 19 and 24, respectively, were the rising stars of Spain’s continental win in 2024, but neither has fired at the World Cup. Yamal’s fitness entering the tournament was a concern, given he missed the end of the domestic Spanish season with a hamstring injury, while Williams has mostly been restricted to cameos from the bench in North America. As lauded as Argentina’s defence has been, Spain have only conceded one goal at the tournament so far. Their organisation as a nation, be it at club or international level, is rarely anything other than immaculate. The rapid, short passing game “Tiki-taki” started in Spain during Pep Guardiola’s time with Barcelona – ironically, when Messi was leading the line for the Catalan club and was the main reason for its success. The Spaniards will once again look for their heavy possession-based game to win the day, with Rodri and Fabian Ruiz acting as the fulcrums in midfield. Weaknesses: As in most walks of life, a strength can also be a weakness. Where question marks have been raised about Spain at this edition, it has mostly surrounded a pedestrian pace. The short passing game remains, but it has not been as swift and effective this time around, especially against the low block – something they are likely to face against Argentina. Most of the sides have set up that way against the Spanish so far, with Cape Verde, Uruguay, Portugal and Belgium all making life exceptionally difficult. The neutral will be hoping very much for an early Spain goal, therefore bringing the Argentinians out to play. Form guide: The opening match of the tournament was against Cape Verde, and the 0-0 draw that the debutants from Africa secured was regarded as one of the great World Cup shocks in the group stage. A much-needed win against Saudi Arabia followed, also with a more than useful 4-0 margin, before a narrow 1-0 win against Uruguay saw Spain through as group winners. Austria were dismissed 3-0 in the last 32, but then came the big tests against Portugal and Belgium. Neither was shaken off easily, with one-goal winning margins, but they were victories nonetheless. The ultimate test at this edition, for all teams hopeful of lifting the trophy, was France – it was a challenge that Spain passed with flying colours. Spain have not tasted defeat in 37 matches, dating back to a 1-0 reverse in an international friendly against Colombia in March 2024. Their last defeat in a competitive match came against Scotland in a Euro 2024 qualifier in March 2023. Players to watch: Yamal has only netted once at this edition, in the trouncing of Saudi Arabia, while their other starlet, Williams, has yet to score. It feels as though something special must come from one of them, even if it is in a late moment of desperation, as per Messi’s two late shows to save Argentina already. A large factor of the final is whether at least one of the megastars on show will shine, and in doing so leave their indelible impression. It is hard to imagine the tournament will pass without Yamal producing something to remember. The winger secured a second successive La Liga title with Barcelona this season and was named Player of the Season. Both sides will happily take a dull 1-0 win, if that is what it takes. The expecting global audience will hope for anything but. 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