With its nuclear weapons, endless riches and vast population, the Mecca Union is attracting nervous glances. But this scary, muscled-up defence pact might be the best chance for peace in the Middle East...

Published: 17:15, 15 August 2026 | Updated: 17:15, 15 August 2026 It’s been presented as an act of last-ditch diplomacy, an extemporised circling of the wagons in response to the dangerous chaos engulfing the Middle East. And it's true that these are troubling times for the three signatories to this month’s Mecca Joint Defence Agreement - Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The joint US-Israeli war on Iran, launched back in February, has raised not just myriad problems, but the spectre of never-ending instability in the Gulf. Iran, wounded but a long way from defeated, has shown no compunction in lashing out at its neighbours, their infrastructure and economic well-being.    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif attend the signing ceremony of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement at the Royal Court in Al-Safa Palace Fireworks in Lahore to celebrate the trilateral defence agreement Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan puts his signature on the pact Meanwhile, it shows every sign of gaining a permanent chokehold over the oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz that are so important for the Arab states. No wonder, you might think, that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have concluded there is safety in numbers. But if you listen carefully, you can hear not just the kerfuffle of rearguard action but the grinding of tectonic plates on the move. It is no secret that the United States is steadily withdrawing from the Middle East - and it should be no surprise that the emerging powers of the region are manoeuvring themselves into the space the US is vacating. Between them, the three signatories make up the third-largest military bloc in the world. They have with ample financial, technological, and economic means, not to mention social, spiritual, and religious leverage. And they mean business. Take a look at some of the numbers involved. The Mecca Union (MU), as it has become known, can call on 3,000 aircraft, putting it third behind the US and China. Istanbul's Martyrs Bridge in the background is lit up in the colors of the participating countries' flags. The Galata Tower is in the foreground Iran shows every sign of gaining a permanent chokehold over the oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz that are so important for the Gulf Arab states It will have 300 ships at its disposal allowing it to patrol Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean with significant force. Between them, the three members will have three million men and women under arms. Thanks to Turkey, it will have a major arms industry, Pakistan will bring a vast population of nearly 260 million plus nuclear weaponry, while Saudi Arabia needs no introduction when its comes to its wealth and energy resources. Other geopolitical blocs - the US, China and the EU - have every reason to be looking over their shoulders. Yet there are huge potential positives from the move, as well as latent rivalries. For example, the MU will be in a strong position to act as a peace broker in the Middle East - a region badly in need of peace. It will be a credible counterweight to the India-Israel-UAE axis of influence. From a Western point of view, the MU - and stability itself - means there will be less chaos for China to exploit. Beijing has made no secret of its wish to strengthen its grip on the region and its resources as US influence diminishes. Between them, the three signatories make up the third-largest military bloc in the world Stability can only help boost trade and limit migration flows. It seems likely that the MU would pressure Saudi Arabia and the Houthis to lay down their arms, while Pakistan, strengthened by the alliance, would find itself much less at the mercy of its hostile neighbour India. Key to regional stability would be constraining the likes of Hezbollah on the one hand and Israel on the other. For all the aggression of Iran and its proxies in the region, there has been no effective constraint on Israel or its formidable weaponry until now. And suddenly it seems there is. Netanyahu’s hotline to Trump has just got hotter still. But seen from the hi-tech splendour of a Washington war room, what’s not to like?