Will Restore stop Reform winning in Makerfield?

“Burnham ahead in Makerfield”, blasts the Survation headline. It’s what many expected after his announcement a few weeks ago. An Andy Burnham candidacy was always likely to propel Labour well beyond what a generic Labour candidate could achieve. Now there’s a constituency poll to back that up.

But note the margin: three points. That’s a few hundred votes – perhaps a thousand if turnout is high. Without Burnham, Reform would hold a commanding lead. And note too who’s in third place: the far-right “deport them all” Restore Britain party. Yet another breakaway from a Nigel Farage-led outfit, Restore performed strongly in the Great Yarmouth local elections, and some polls now place it between 2 and 5 per cent.

If those polls are accurate (and there remains uncertainty around whether pollsters oversample the terminally online), then Restore should be expected to do better in Makerfield – a whiter, more working-class, more socially conservative constituency than average. One might expect the party to save its deposit comfortably. The counterargument, however, is that a close Labour–Reform contest squeezes that vote sharply. Reform and Restore are, after all, fishing in much the same pool.

So for Survation to find Restore on 7 per cent is an eye-opener – especially given Burnham’s lead sits at a tentative three points, exactly where Britain Predicts had it a few weeks ago.

Makerfield is a patchwork of small towns and villages, plus the southern third of Wigan itself. All of it sits within the Wigan council area, where Reform trounced Labour across every ward in the recent elections. But spending time in the seat – and hearing reports and seeing photos from Labour activists – showed me the Restore threat is real.

Labour sources say that on the doorstep they are hearing as many voters mention Restore as Reform. (Curiously, they also report not meeting many Labour – or Burnham – supporters.) Doorstep impressions can exaggerate fringe enthusiasm; the loudest voices tend to dominate. But between what’s being reported on the ground and the only constituency poll we have, Restore appears to have real supporters – who could yet cost Reform the seat.

But Restore is still largely an online phenomenon. Whereas only around a quarter of Britons can correctly identify Green leader Zack Polanski from a photograph, just 5 to 10 per cent can do the same for Restore leader Rupert Lowe.

We know Restore receives amplification from Elon Musk and X. We know Restore sometimes outperforms Reform on likes and reposts, aided by algorithmic visibility. Twitter isn’t Britain. However, voters have become increasingly dependent on social media for news and political content. Either Survation – like some pollsters and critics argue – is oversampling highly engaged online respondents who know about Restore, or it has picked up something real.

It’s notable that the pattern is also appearing in canvass returns. Labour activists are saying it, and it’s giving them confidence. Yet that confidence may be misplaced. During Ukip’s peak, right-wing gains often came through lower turnout, not higher. The emerging evidence for Reform suggests the opposite: it performs best where turnout rises. New voters are turning out, and disproportionately for Reform.

The same pattern appears with Restore. In Norfolk divisions where Restore won, turnout jumped sharply. Take Yarmouth North and Central: around 2,200 votes were cast last time; in May, roughly 3,000. Magdalen division – once Labour, now Restore – saw turnout rise from 2,243 in 2021 to 3,606 this May. It’s difficult not to conclude that the radical right is energising disengaged voters.

If that’s happening in Makerfield, those voters may remain loyal to their respective parties, splitting the vote and making a Burnham victory easier, not harder. Or – if they’re energised, online and highly politically aware – they may decide to back Reform to stop Burnham. Labour’s fear is a terminally online – but very real – tactical-voting opposition. Restore may hold firm to its deport-them-all rhetoric. It may criticise Farage publicly. But if its voters come to see Burnham as the greater threat, don’t be surprised if that 7 per cent is cut in half – and Labour’s prospects with it.

[Further reading: Will Brexit ruin Andy Burnham’s campaign in Makerfield?]