Will petrol prices in UAE increase, hit Dh4 a litre in May?

Petrol prices are set to be revised in the UAE next week for the month of May, in line with global market fluctuations.

Oil prices mostly traded in the high $90s and above $100 a barrel during April, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing regional military conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran.

Crude prices eased after the ceasefire between the US and Iran was extended, but climbed above $100 again as both countries exchanged military rhetoric.

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The Fuel Price Committee raised petrol prices in the UAE by around Dh0.80 per litre, or nearly one-third, for April after oil surged in March following the outbreak of the Middle East war on February 28.

For April, Super 98, Special 95 and E-Plus were priced at Dh3.39, Dh3.28 and Dh3.20 per litre, respectively.

The average closing Brent crude price in April was $99.16 a barrel, compared with $96.96 a barrel in March. This suggests fuel prices could be adjusted slightly higher. However, the final decision rests with the committee, which will announce the revised rates on April 30.

The UAE recorded its highest-ever petrol prices in 2022 after the Russia-Ukraine war, when prices surpassed Dh4 a litre for the first time ever in the country.

In July 2022, petrol prices reached record levels, with Super 98 priced at Dh4.63 per litre and Special 95 at Dh4.52 per litre.

The impact of the Middle East conflict on global oil prices has been more severe due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the higher number of oil-producing countries affected by the regional tensions.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has removed an estimated 10-13 million barrels per day of supply — roughly 12 per cent of global output — triggering the sharpest disruption to energy flows since the 1970s oil crises.