Will gas dip below $3 a gallon this year? Here's what experts think.

MoneyWatch Will gas dip below $3 a gallon this year? Here's what experts predict. .chip { background-image: url('/fly/bundles/cbsnewscore/images/chip-bgd/chip-bgd-moneywatch.jpg'); } By Mary Cunningham Mary Cunningham Reporter, MoneyWatch Mary Cunningham is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch. She previously worked at "60 Minutes," CBSNews.com and CBS News 24/7 as part of the CBS News Associate Program. Read Full Bio Mary Cunningham April 21, 2026 / 3:33 PM EDT / CBS News Add CBS News on Google Drivers around the U.S. have seen some modest relief at the pump lately as gasoline prices retreat toward $4 a gallon. But motorists shouldn't bank on fuel costs returning to where they were just before the Iran war anytime soon, according to experts.Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, doesn't expect gas prices to drop below $3 this year absent a major economic shock, such as a recession. "Under the most optimistic scenarios, I would expect gas prices to settle closer to $3.50 by year's end," he told CBS News in an email.When the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, the national average price of gas was $2.98 a gallon. But the conflict has crippled oil shipments passing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, pushing gas prices to a recent high of $4.17 a gallon on April 9.Expect higher fuel prices for monthsFuel costs are closely tied to oil prices, which have been elevated since the Iran war started. And unfortunately for motorists, gas prices typically rise much faster after crude spikes than they recede when oil drops — a pattern known by economists as the "rockets and feathers" principle, Zandi estimates it will take months, if not years, for the global oil supply to rebound due to the damage inflicted by the war on oil infrastructure across the Middle East. It's also unclear when the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen. As a result, diminished global oil supply is likely to keep U.S. fuel prices el...