Why Oil Hasn’t Hit $150—Yet

BusinessEnergyWhy Oil Hasn’t Hit $150—YetByRobert Rapier,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Robert Rapier is a chemical engineer covering the energy sector.Follow AuthorMay 18, 2026, 09:52am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.TOPSHOT - In this picture obtained from Iran's ISNA news agency on May 4, 2026, vessels are pictured anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas in southern Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guards on May 4 denied that any commercial ships had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, after the US military earlier said two US-flagged merchant vessels had transited through the vital waterway. (Photo by Amirhossein KHORGOOEI / ISNA / AFP via Getty Images) /ISNA/AFP via Getty ImagesI think most energy analysts would have been shocked to learn that roughly three months into a total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil would be trading at just over $100 a barrel. I certainly expected prices to be significantly higher by now. The physical math seems indisputable: take that much supply off the market, and prices should respond quickly and decisively.Oil prices have risen sharply, to be clear. But we are still short of the levels seen following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, or of the all-time highs set just before the 2008–2009 financial crisis.Instead of the $150 oil many anticipated, prices have climbed, but not to catastrophic levels. It is easy to look at this and conclude that the market has absorbed the shock. But that interpretation risks confusing resilience with delay. What we are seeing is not a resolution. It is a temporary buffer.The Market’s Hidden Shock AbsorbersThe biggest reason the oil market hasn’t reacted more violently to the Strait of Hormuz closure is simple: the world entered this crisis with more inventory than many analysts appreciated. Those barrels have acted as a shock absorber. They...