A Tale Of Two Oil Shocks: Why 2026 Feels Big, But Isn’t As Big As 1973

BusinessEnergyA Tale Of Two Oil Shocks: Why 2026 Feels Big, But Isn’t As Big As 1973ByAriel Cohen,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Ariel Cohen is a D.C.-based contributor who covers energy and securityFollow AuthorMay 18, 2026, 11:40am EDT1973 Sorry No Gas Sign Beside Gas Pumps At Service Station Due To OAPEC Oil Crisis. Whether the 2026 crisis will approach the severity of the 1973 embargo remains to be seen, but it is unlikely.H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock As the world watches the next act in the U.S.-Iran drama with bated breath, the headlines write themselves: the worst oil disruption in history, a fifth of global supply at risk, and Brent crude close to $110. The International Energy Agency has warned that the ongoing Iran War represents an unprecedented supply shock. Yet before declaring this the ultimate energy crisis, it is worth asking a simple question: compared to what?The 1973 oil embargo, often treated as the benchmark, offers a useful lens. Then, oil prices quadrupled, gas lines stretched for miles, and entire industries were shuttered. Today, despite a larger physical disruption, the global economy continues to move along, for now. That contrast is not an accident. It is the result of five decades of structural change in how energy markets function. What Happened In 1973 The 1973–1974 Arab oil embargo was a geopolitical masterstroke. The Arab members of OPEC, operating as the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) cut production by roughly 4.5 million barrels per day, targeting nations that supported Israel. The results were immediate and severe, even though non-Arab suppliers such as Iran and Venezuela continued to produce and sell oil.Oil prices surged from under $3 per barrel to over $12, an increase of 400 %. In the United States, gasoline prices rose from 38 cents per gallon in early 1973 to 55 cents by 1974, a roughly 45% increase. That may sound modest today, but the broad...