Why Aussies WILL be forced to ration fuel: Expert's grim warning with 'crunch point' just days away - despite Albanese government's new supply deal

Published: 00:16, 7 April 2026 | Updated: 00:26, 7 April 2026 An expert has warned that Australia could be forced to ration fuel within weeks, despite Energy Minister Chris Bowen insisting supply has been extended.  Logistics and supply chain expert Ben Fahimnia, from the University of Sydney, said Australia is 'dangerously positioned' in global markets because it relies on imports for 90 per cent of its fuel.  Despite the Albanese government touting fuel rationing as a potential measure during a 'worst-case' scenario, Mr Fahimnia said it's a question of when, not if, for Australia. 'It's a must. It's not something we can avoid,' he told The Daily Telegraph.  'I believe if the conflict drags beyond this week, we will go into formal fuel rationing. And the reason is very obvious - because we don't have much control over the supply side of things. 'If the conflict escalates and Hormuz remains closed, we definitely move into a crisis within the next couple of weeks.' His warning comes after Bowen reassured Australians on Monday the fuel supply had been extended beyond mid-April and 'into May'. MST Financial energy analyst Saul Kavonic described the end of April as the 'crunch time' for the country.  An expert has warned that Australia will be forced to start rationing fuel within weeks despite Energy Minister Chris Bowen revealing supply had been secured into May Logistics and supply chain management expert Ben Fahimnia said he believes Australia will go into 'formal fuel rationing' if the conflict drags beyond this week 'The risk of structural shortages only really begins (then),' he said. 'So, that's the real crunch time. And if the government sees that risk remaining acute, they may start to implement demand management measures before that shortage arrives.' Mr Fahimnia said better national coordination to monitor likely and emerging shortages is needed to avoid a 'very ugly May'.  'We have to think of this as a systemic shock rather than an oil supply issue,' he said. Newly released figures show demand for fuel in NSW was five times higher than normal in the days after the Iran war began, with that demand now 100 per cent higher than normal. Attorney-General Michelle Rowland told Sunrise on Tuesday the Albanese government was not considering fuel rations. 'We are focused on security of supply. And work has been done across industry, but also, again, with international partners to ensure that supply continues,' she said. Bowen said on Monday normal fuel supplies had been guaranteed from major exporters in Japan, South Korea and Singapore. Energy Minister Chris Bowen said fuel supplies have been secured into May 'All the orders are locked in, contracted,' he told ABC's Radio National.  'Once it's contracted, the fuel belongs to the Australian company that's bought it, so that is legally locked in. That's encouraging.'  However, he could not guarantee beyond that, acknowledging overseas refiners would 'come under pressure' if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Petrol imports are dominated by Singapore, which supplies about 54.7 per cent (5,974.7 megalitres), followed by South Korea at 22.5 per cent and India at 11.5 per cent, with Malaysia contributing a further 10 per cent. Smaller volumes come from countries such as Japan, Brunei and several European nations. Diesel supply is also concentrated among a handful of key partners, led by South Korea at 28.8 per cent (8,716 megalitres), followed by Singapore at 15.4 per cent and Malaysia at 14.4 per cent. Australia now has fuel reserves equivalent to 39 days' worth of petrol, 29 days' worth of diesel and 30 days' worth of jet fuel, with over 50 fuel shipments due to arrive in the next month. On Monday, 142 service stations in NSW were without diesel, 39 with no fuel. Nationwide, 3.4 per cent of service stations were without diesel - in Victoria, 51 without diesel, 30 without fuel, in Queensland, 38 were without diesel, 32 weer without fuel and in South Australia, nine were without diesel and five without fuel. Western Australia had 19 stations without diesel and 29 with no fuel; Tasmania had seven without diesel and seven without fuel; in the ACT, four were without diesel and two without fuel.  'NSW has been higher because farmers are seeding and sowing, and they've been prioritised,' Bowen clarified. 'We've also had fuel companies increase truck fleets by 20 per cent over Easter.' Meanwhile, relief from crippling fuel costs has begun to flow after the Albanese government temporarily halved taxes on petrol and diesel, while states also agreed to pass on an expected GST windfall due to higher takings on sales. But the 30c-a-litre savings haven't offset soaring global oil prices, with just a trickle of tankers now making it through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.  The comments below have not been moderated. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? 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