When will the hot weather return? How super El Niño is fueling extreme weather

The UK faces a hotter-than-average summer with the potential for more heatwaves, forecasters have predicted.

After a record-breaking May where temperatures surged to 35.1C at Kew Gardens in London, cooler and wetter conditions have returned across much of the country.

But its latest three-month outlook covering June, July and August, the Met Office said the chances of a hot summer are higher than normal, raising the prospect of further spells of extreme heat in the months ahead.

Forecasters said temperatures are likely to rise again later this month, with “an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts”.

When will it get hot again?

For now, the heatwave has been replaced by a more typical early summer pattern, with Atlantic weather systems bringing spells of rain, showers and cooler temperatures.

Forecasters expect unsettled weather to dominate through much of the first half of June, with temperatures generally close to seasonal averages. Some areas could also see heavy downpours and thunderstorms as low-pressure systems move across the country.

But, there are increasing signs that conditions may become more settled as the month progresses.

The Met Office’s long-range forecast suggests high pressure is likely to become more influential from the middle of June onwards, bringing drier weather to many areas and allowing temperatures to climb.

While it is too early to predict another heatwave, forecasters say there is a growing possibility of very warm or hot conditions developing later in the month, particularly across southern and eastern parts of the UK.

Some weather models indicate temperatures could rise well above average during the second half of June if high pressure becomes established over north-west Europe.

Why are forecasters expecting a hotter summer?

The recent heatwave may offer a glimpse of what lies ahead this summer.

The latest three-month outlook from the Met Office is not based on a single weather event but on broader climate signals that influence seasonal conditions.

Private forecasters have reached similar conclusions predicting a hotter than average summer. MeteoGroup, which provides weather data for BBC Weather, predicts above-average temperatures throughout the summer and says there could be several significant bursts of heat affecting both the UK and mainland Europe.

Scientists say part of the reason is the long-term warming trend associated with climate change. According to the Met Office, hot summers are now around twice as likely as they were during the 1991-2020 climate reference period.

While many people may welcome the return of sunshine after a wet start to June, another heatwave could bring challenges.

Last week’s hot spell placed pressure on water supplies in parts of southern England, with thousands of households experiencing disruptions after demand surged during the hottest days.

Water companies reported exceptionally high usage as temperatures climbed above 30C for several consecutive days. River levels in some parts of eastern and southern England are already lower than normal following a particularly dry spring.

Health officials also issued yellow and amber heat-health alerts during the May heatwave, warning that extreme temperatures can pose risks to older people, young children and those with underlying health conditions.

How ‘super’ El Niño could affect UK weather

There is also growing attention on the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual.

Several forecasters are predicting this El Niño could be one of the strongest ever recorded, leading some to dub it a “super” or “Godzilla” event.

Although its influence on UK weather is indirect, El Niño years are often associated with higher global temperatures and can sometimes increase the chances of warmer conditions reaching Europe.

Beyond temperatures, Britons could also experience the impact of extreme weather in other ways, such as through increased food prices, owing to factors such crop failures, supply disruption due to extreme weather, or rising energy costs due to climate disruption.