What Hormuz Whiplash Means For Markets

BusinessEnergyWhat Hormuz Whiplash Means For MarketsByAriel Cohen,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Ariel Cohen is a D.C.-based contributor who covers energy and securityFollow AuthorApr 24, 2026, 01:08pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.TUAPSE OIL REFINERY, BLACK SEA COAST — APRIL 16, 2026: 07 — Vantor satellite image shows several oil storage tanks on fire with thick black smoke drifting south over the Black Sea at the Tuapse oil refinery. Energy infrastructure worldwide is under attack, set to impact markets in a myriad of ways.DigitalGlobe/Getty ImagesThe world is fighting a two-front energy war. One front runs through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and the United States are locked in a standoff. My old acquaintance, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, called this the worst energy shock in history, more severe than the 1970s oil crisis and the Ukraine war combined. The second front runs through the heart of Europe, where Ukrainian drones are systematically dismantling Russia's oil export infrastructure while Moscow, stung and furious, is punishing its neighbor and ally, Kazakhstan, and its former energy customer, Germany, for it. There is no resolution in sight, and the potential for escalation is high. A Ceasefire Nobody Believes In President Donald Trump extended the uneasy ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday, April 21st. This came after a day of whiplash: Trump had said earlier he "expected to be bombing" Iran again, before reversing course. He did not specify an end date, though per CNN, he plans to give the Iranians a limited timeframe. Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department issued an urgent advisory for American citizens to leave Lebanon and Iran. The terrorist organization Hezbollah, an Iranian-trained, equipped, and financed proxy, continues attacking Israel despite the ceasefire impose...