What forecasters expect this hurricane season, as Tropical Storm Bertha edges along

Weather What forecasters expect this hurricane season, as Tropical Storm Bertha edges along July 22, 20265:15 AM ET By  Ava Berger This NOAA satellite image taken at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, July 21, shows Tropical Storm Bertha moving along the Gulf of Mexico's northern coast. NOAA via AP hide caption toggle caption NOAA via AP Tropical Storm Bertha is the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it's expected to track along the northern Gulf Coast for several days, hitting Gulf communities with up to four feet of storm surge and sustained winds as high as 50 miles per hour. Forecasters don't expect Bertha to strengthen into a hurricane. But warmer waters in the Atlantic means the risk of destructive storms for the season is still high. Climate Rain, storm surge and wind: How to understand your hurricane risk Unusually warm Gulf waters increase risk of powerful storms Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University predict fewer storms than average during the 2026 hurricane season. That's in part because of a strong El Niño. This weather pattern drives up average global temperatures and generally tamps down hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Sponsor Message Weather Forecasters expect slightly fewer hurricanes than usual this year, but the risk of destructive storms is still high But abnormally warm temperatures in the Atlantic can also increase the likelihood of stronger storms, says Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa Bay, Fla. Atmospheric conditions play a large role, but Berardelli compares the warm water's impact on storms to fuel for a car. "The Gulf is high octane water for a storm right now because it's warmer than normal," Berardelli said. Sea surface temperatures are unusually high in the part of the Atlantic where hurricanes are born. Temperatures are higher in part because the oceans have absorbed most of the extra heat trapped by planet-warming pollution from b...