What do Makerfield voters really think?
It has been four weeks since the local elections that sent the Labour Party into an existential spiral, and there are two weeks to go before the by-election that could change the course of British politics. Andy Burnham has gambled everything on making a run for Westminster, hoping the personal brand he has built over nine years as mayor of Greater Manchester will help him defy his party’s unpopularity. Reform, which should do well in this constituency that voted Leave by 65 per cent in 2016, is throwing everything it has at blocking his path and delivering a humiliating defeat for Labour.
On a sweltering evening in May, ten residents of Makerfield, who will soon get their say on this proxy-battle, gathered on Zoom. They took it in turns to introduce themselves: a fireman, a joiner, a retired teacher, a nurse, a hairdresser. Snapshots of kitchens and dimly lit living rooms were visible in the background. All ten voted for Labour in 2024, but, for the purpose of these focus groups, carried out exclusively for the New Statesman by Merlin Strategy, they have been divided in two. One focus group was full of participants who have switched to Reform. The other included those who were as yet undecided, still open to giving Labour a chance or considering alternatives like the Greens. What did they make of Keir Starmer’s government, the realignment of British politics and the fight now being brought to their doorsteps?
First: the Reform voters. Among this group, the hatred for Keir Starmer and the government they had all voted for in 2024 was visceral. “I’ve never been lied to like I have been by Keir,” said one man. Other members of the cabinet fared little better. Participants had either not heard of them – none had anything to say about Wes Streeting – or viewed them with disdain: Rachel Reeves was “a thief” who “hits the likes of us harder” with tax rises.
Their assessment did not improve when it came to the government’s performance. “I don’t think anything’s being run properly, and I think the things that were promised… they’ve not been done,” said one woman. The cost of living and the state of the local area, subjects that animated voters across the country when they went to the polls last month, were high on the list of priorities here too. “The streets are like Mad Max… every single shop [is] a barber shop or a vape shop,” said one participant. “People can’t afford to live any more,” added another. Government efforts to alleviate the cost of living had not resonated. “There’s no sign of improvement,” sighed one woman – one of the group’s quieter members – with despair.
These voters placed the blame for these pressures on immigration. In their analysis, the number of people entering the country was tightly interwoven with the cost-of-living crisis they were all feeling, whether due to increased housing demand (“thanks to immigration, and everyone coming over, there’s no houses”) or misguided government spending priorities. Immigration was the issue that had prompted all but one of the group to vote for Reform in the local elections (the fifth said he supported Rupert Lowe’s further-right party Restore Britain). “I think something has desperately got to be done for this country, and I think the biggest thing that needs to be done is getting a handle on the immigration,” was the reasoning of one woman, met with approving nods across the group. This issue was considered pivotal in the upcoming by-election, in which everyone intended to vote.
The government’s announcement in May that net migration had fallen by almost half in 2025, to 171,000, was not well received. Participants either did not believe the figures, or disregarded them on the grounds that “the only people that are coming in are illegal immigrants”. (By the end of March this year, some 43,000 people arrived via illegal routes, with small boats accounting for 90 per cent of these.) This group challenged Morgan McSweeney’s view that Labour could win over Reform-curious voters by reducing net migration. In fact, voters are yet to be persuaded.
Reform, in contrast, was considered more capable: a “strong and fearless party at a time where the country is very weak”, as one participant put it. But support for Farage was mixed: everyone could identify him (they were not, however, able to name any other Reform politicians) and agreed he was a “strong candidate” and “quite a character”, though one woman pointed out that immigration had worsened since Brexit.
The social media travails of Reform’s Makerfield candidate, Robert Kenyon (derogatory posts about women, sexualised comments about the broadcaster Carol Vorderman), got a similarly varied reception. While none of the participants saw them as a deal-breaker (“I’m sure blokes have these conversations in the pub all the time… I just think if he can do a good job, I’m not gonna let that silly comment tarnish it”), there was consensus that Kenyon was not “doing himself any favours” by making such comments.
Still, this wasn’t the group’s main hesitation in voting for Reform on 18 June. The big concern was that the party would prove to be no different from Labour. “If they don’t do what they say they’re going to do, then I think it could be disastrous,” one woman said. The others agreed that people weren’t “overly keen on voting for them”, but were doing so because they felt they had no other choice. Voting for Reform was one last roll of the dice, something different, because “what we’ve been doing so far really hasn’t worked”.
The assessment of Reform was far harsher in the second group. “Bunch of racists”, “recycled Tory con men” and “1990s Canary Island timeshare salesmen” were the words that sprang to mind to describe the party among this group of Labour sympathisers. Farage, meanwhile, was “full of fake promises”, “just… in it for himself” and a “lying, racist, opportunist”.
In this context, the by-election was viewed with confusion. “It just worries me that Reform might become the MP,” said one participant, while another shared concerns that it might have “opened the door for Reform”. This risk had focused minds. Like the first group, everyone was intending to vote – if only to try to block Farage’s party. One woman who would have preferred the Greens was backing Labour to this end. Yet there was a sense of despondence that a Reform win was almost inevitable.
Aside from their opposition to Reform, these voters felt similarly to their right-leaning counterparts about the state of politics – and the country. Starmer was granted some grace. One woman (the only participant in either group who recognised a photo of Rupert Lowe) decried how the media made his job impossible, but otherwise the assessment of the Prime Minister was bleak: a “nonentity”, “a bit of a conservative in disguise”. Whether more in sorrow or in anger, they agreed that Starmer’s cabinet – by background the most working-class in British political history – was not delivering for the traditional Labour base.
Their views on how the government was doing were also lukewarm. Like the Reform voters, the cost of living, especially food and fuel prices, was top of their concerns. While they were more understanding of the limits of what the government could do to alleviate this, they also didn’t it give much credit. There was some cautious support for public sector pay rises, progress on bringing down NHS waiting lists and breakfast clubs for children, as well sympathy about the inheritance left by the Conservatives. But undercutting the positivity were complaints about Labour getting distracted by “falling out and bickering”, frustration at higher taxes on working people in the context of high welfare benefits, and disappointment that the promised improvements in public services had not materialised.
What of the man who kicked off everything, using Makerfield as a “proof of concept” by-election to prove his ability to attract voters back to Labour? Andy Burnham was the only politician other than Starmer and Farage to receive widespread recognition in both focus groups. People knew the Greater Manchester mayor, and had strong views (both positive and negative) about his record. The Bee Network bus reforms got a decisive thumbs up in both groups; the debacle over city centre congestion charging received an equally decisive thumbs down.
Burnham was considered “quite personable”, a “people pleaser” and “very charismatic”. But his likeability was not uncomplicated. “Can he make the decisions and choices that need to be made… in this country? I don’t know… because I think he likes to be liked too much,” mused one sceptic in the Reform-leaning group. A fellow participant agreed with her: “We probably need the absolute polar opposite to him. We need somebody who’s not bothered about offending.”
Where there was variation, the responses were mirror-images of each other. One Reform-leaning man was worried Burnham might prove to be just “another Starmer”, promising much and delivering little. A Starmer-sympathiser in the other group, meanwhile, was doubtful that Burnham would fare much better as prime minister, because “he’s just going to be demonised now… They’re just going to drag him through the mud.”
Although Burnham is clearly a popular figure, neither group considered him the decisive factor in their voting intentions. Those who had abandoned Labour were not convinced by his pitch to be offering the people of Makerfield something different. “Ultimately, he wants to be the PM, and then he won’t look at the likes of us any more,” said one. “Does he not just want to win just to be prime minister?” asked another. Those who were alarmed by the prospect of Farage were much warmer about Burnham, but gave the impression they would have voted for whoever the anti-Reform candidate was.
This by-election is ultimately not about local issues. Burnham is pitching for a seat in Westminster so he can challenge the Prime Minister. If Reform can stop him, it will have demonstrated it has the momentum to beat a Labour figure with unusually high popularity and name recognition.
Everyone in the focus groups understood the stakes. The participants were not particularly politically engaged, but they did know that this vote mattered. “Years ago I didn’t even bother to vote, but I do feel that it’s that important now to make a difference,” said one woman, who intends to vote Reform. “It needs people like us to make that choice.”
[Further reading: Andy Burnham’s door-knock to Downing Street]
