What could cause mortgage rates to decline this May?

MoneyWatch: Managing Your Money What could cause mortgage rates to decline this May? We may receive commissions from some links to products on this page. Promotions are subject to availability and retailer terms. .chip { background-image: url('/fly/bundles/cbsnewscore/images/chip-bgd/chip-bgd-moneywatch.jpg'); } By Angelica Leicht Angelica Leicht Senior Editor, Managing Your Money Angelica Leicht is the senior editor for the Managing Your Money section for CBSNews.com, where she writes and edits articles on a range of personal finance topics. Angelica previously held editing roles at The Simple Dollar, Interest, HousingWire and other financial publications. Read Full Bio Angelica Leicht May 4, 2026 / 1:51 PM EDT / CBS News Add CBS News on Google Mortgage rates don't move only when the Fed acts, and numerous forces could still shift significantly in May. Shutjane/Getty Images Mortgage rates have spent much of this year on an unpredictable course. After brushing near 5.75% in early March, rates surged past 6.3% by month's end, driven largely by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the inflationary pressures that followed. By mid-April, some relief arrived when rates briefly dipped below 6% before climbing again as peace talks stalled and oil prices remained elevated. As of early May, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now hovering near 6.38%, leaving prospective buyers and would-be refinancers to watch the market and wait for a reason to make a move.What makes this moment particularly complicated, though, is the absence of a Federal Reserve meeting in May. The Fed paused rates for a third consecutive time at its April meeting, leaving the benchmark range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Without a formal Fed decision on the calendar this month, some borrowers may assume mortgage rates are locked in place, as there's nothing meaningful likely to push them in either direction until June. That assumption, however, indicates a clear misunderstanding of how mortgage rates actua...