USAID Shuttered A Year Ago. Will Trump’s Trade Over Aid Replacement Actually Work?

InnovationHealthcareUSAID Shuttered A Year Ago. Will Trump’s Trade Over Aid Replacement Actually Work?ByJesse Pines,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Jesse Pines is an expert in healthcare innovation and wellness.Follow AuthorMay 10, 2026, 06:30am EDTWASHINGTON, DC - A worker removes the U.S. Agency for International Development sign on their headquarters on February 07, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)Getty ImagesOn July 1, 2025, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), a 64-year-old institution operating in more than 130 countries that prevented between four and five million deaths per year, ceased to exist as an independent agency. By March 2025, 83% of its contracts were canceled. What remained was absorbed into the State Department, which now operates a 200-person Bureau of Disaster and Humanitarian Response with a fraction of USAID’s former budget.The Trump administration’s case for closing USAID was waste, inefficiency, and that it created a culture of dependency. According to the administration’s America First Global Health Strategy, less than 40% of U.S. health foreign assistance reached frontline services, with the rest absorbed by overhead and program management. Yet USAID was closed abruptly without a plan for a replacement. The issue is that many across the world were dependent on that funding.Now, the administration has its answer: trade. On April 27, 2026, Ambassador Michael Waltz launched the ‘Trade Over Aid’ initiative declaring that private-sector investment and bilateral trade agreements would replace development grants as America’s primary tool of global engagement. Thirty-five countries signed on. How the substitution may impact on-the-ground populations in need of support is a central question facing global public health right now.What USAID Actually Did Before It Was ShutteredAt its peak, USAID disbursed roughly $40 billion annually, funding...