US-Iran Peace Deal Won’t Eliminate Security Risks

Editors' PickBusinessAerospace & DefenseUS-Iran Peace Deal Won’t Eliminate Security RisksByMichael P. Dempsey,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Dempsey is a senior advisor at The Eurasia Group,Follow AuthorMay 28, 2026, 03:31pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Vice President JD Vance visited Islamabad Pakistan last month for talks with Iranian officials, a rare direct engagement between senior U.S. and Iranian officials.Getty ImagesAs diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran inch forward, despite both sides still engaging in periodic military strikes, it seems likely that they will eventually agree to an initial memo of understanding to be followed by 30 to 60 days when specific details of a peace agreement can be negotiated. Regardless of when a deal is finally reached, we can already identify several security challenges that will linger over the Middle East for the foreseeable future.Murky Outlook For The Strait of HormuzOnce an interim peace agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial shipping, there are several challenges that will have to be addressed before the strait can return to something akin to normal operations. First, industry and maritime experts anticipate that it will take at least a few weeks to clear the existing backlog of hundreds of commercial tankers and cargo ships laden with oil, natural gas and fertilizers. There are already reports that several commercial ships have moved closer to the strait in anticipation of an opening. Simply organizing an orderly departure timeline and route for this many vessels will require significant logistical coordination. At the same time, shipping firms will still presumably have to reach an accommodation with their insurers before resuming passage through the strait. While this may be done in short order, it might also requir...