U.K.’s EV Push Distorts Sales; Expect Casualties, Probably Not Chinese

InnovationTransportationU.K.’s EV Push Distorts Sales; Expect Casualties, Probably Not ChineseByNeil Winton,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. U.K.-based Neil Winton covers the European Auto industry.Follow AuthorApr 25, 2026, 09:01am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Electric vehiclegettyElectric vehicles must reach 80% of the U.K. new car market by 2030. As EV sales advance, this government quota is unsettling the market and causing financial strain on car dealers and manufacturers as Chinese rivals move in. In a stagnant market, by 2030 there will be casualties. They are unlikely to be Chinese, although the rules could change.Unless the Zero Emission Vehicle rules demanding EV market share triples by 2030 are diluted, or barriers raised to curb Chinese competition, large manufacturers operating in Britain will struggle to make money, while marginal players will go to the wall. There is currently no sign ZEV will change or that tariff barriers are imminent.As European, U.S., Japanese and Korean manufacturers reel from the regulations, Chinese manufacturers look likely to emerge as winners. Last year, according to French automotive consultancy Inovev, Chinese EV market share was just over 10% in Europe, and could rise to between 18% and 25% by 2030. The European Union imposed tariffs to slow the progress of China’s EVs, but so far there is no sign the British government might act to slow China’s progress. In such a lucrative market for the Chinese, the British government could be thinking of using that leverage to persuade the likes of SAIC’s MG to build its proposed European factory in the U.K. U.K. should attract Chinese factoriesThe 80% target is in trouble because there is not yet any underlying demand from private buyers to match this destiny. The current EV market share was 22.6% in March and the target for this year is...