Ukraine races to build home-made air defences as Russian missile threat grows

Ukraine tested a new home-made air defence system this week, as it struggles to fend off increasingly deadly missile barrages.

The first launch of the FP-7.x rocket, a product of leading drone and missile manufacturer Fire Point, was shown in a video published on social media. Iryna Terekh, the company’s CEO, said the launch marked a step towards the creation of a home-made anti-ballistic missile interceptor.

“No matter how unrealistic and ambitious this goal may sound today, we are exerting all possible and impossible efforts to make it a reality as soon as possible, so that Ukraine can close its skies on its own,” she said.

Ukraine’s air defence stockpiles have been a concern throughout the war, with the country under regular Russian bombardments.

That concern has become more acute in recent months as interceptor supplies for US Patriot systems have dwindled – with global stocks reduced by the US-Israeli war against Iran. Meanwhile, Russia has increased its rate of ballistic-missile fire, finding gaps in Ukraine’s defences and inflicting heavy casualties. A Russian barrage earlier this week killed 22 people.

Russian air attacks have typically used limited numbers of ballistic missiles alongside large quantities of drones, but recent barrages have dramatically increased the volume of missiles, including hypersonic variants such as the Kinzhal that Ukraine has struggled to shoot down.

One attack in May included 90 missiles, according to Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has also threatened to make greater use of the nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic Oreshnik against population centres.

Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly appealed to his country’s allies to help plug the gaps in its defences, amid fears that critical infrastructure could be left exposed. But Ukraine’s leader is also looking to his own domestic defence industry for answers, and has set a demanding target. “We ​need to build our own anti-ballistic-missile defence system within a year,” he said in April.

Fire Point, Ukraine’s leading producer of long-range drones used against Russia, as well as the long-range pink Flamingo missiles that recently entered service, is at the forefront of the project.

The FP-7.x is a step towards a low-cost replacement for the Patriot that also borrows from the Russian S-400 air-defence system, the company claims. The design also uses elements of the Flamingo, including its signature colour: pink.

Fire Point’s co-founder and chief designer, Denys Shtilierman, recently told Reuters that if the cost of an interceptor could be reduced to less than $1m (£749,000), compared to around $4m (£3m) for a Patriot missile, it would be a “game changer in air defence solutions”.

He is also pushing for a similar timeline to Zelensky. “We plan to intercept the first ballistic missile at the end of 2027,” he said.

However, Fire Point and Ukraine are seeking support from European nations and companies to clear the daunting technological and financial hurdles on this strict timeline, while under constant Russian attacks.

Ukraine recently announced a defence partnership with Germany, with provision for air defences, while Zelensky named Germany, along with France, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Italy, as collaborators in the anti-ballistic-missile project this week. Fire Point has cited several European defence companies as potential partners.

So far none of the countries or companies has shared details of any role supporting the development of Ukraine’s air defences.

A spokesperson for the German defence ministry told The i Paper it could not provide details of its involvement, in order to maintain “military and operational security” and “prevent any inferences being drawn about the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces”.

The scale of the task is formidable, said Nick Brown, director for equipment at Jane’s Defence Insight. “Intercepting ballistic missiles remains a complex science and it has taken the Western defence industry many years to develop the necessary radars and interceptors.”

He added: “The speeds involved are huge and the targets are small, so actually building a sufficiently fast interceptor with extremely precise guidance is where other developers have struggled, and I suspect Ukraine will find that challenging too.”

The costs involved are huge, with each munition and test running to the equivalent of millions of pounds. Fire Point has raised money through crowd-funding and government investment, but is also seeking foreign backers.

Even so, Kyiv can count on a domestic military-industrial complex that has earned a reputation for speed and ingenuity. During four years of war, Ukraine has developed dozens of effective designs for land, air and sea drones that have helped it hold off the world’s second-largest military.

“Ukraine’s defence industry boasts a lot of bright engineers and scientists, so it will be interesting to see if they can meet their ambitious development cycles,” Brown told The i Paper, adding that there could be mutual benefits from European partners using Ukraine as a “live battle lab to trial technologies”.

Tal Inbar, an Israeli missile specialist, also suggested Ukraine could rise to the challenge. “Developing a full-scale air defence system is a very complex and expensive task. The components would include a detection radar, interceptors and a command and control system,” he said.

“Each of these three components is not trivial, but it is certainly within the capabilities of Ukrainian industry – given a sufficient budget. A one-year timetable seems ambitious, but it seems that development of the system has already begun, before it was unveiled.”

A Ukrainian security source, who did not wish to be named, suggested that the timeline of next year was ambitious and a system could ultimately require three to five years to be made fully operational.

Given the perils Ukraine faces, with dwindling interceptors against escalating Russian attacks, critical infrastructure could soon be under increasing threat, the source said, adding that the resupply of Western air defence systems should be the priority.

Analysts expect a bidding war between countries around the world for scarce Patriot interceptors. Ukraine hopes to be high up the queue, but is busy working on its Plan B.