U.A.E.’s Exit Does Not Mean The End Of OPEC

BusinessEnergyU.A.E.’s Exit Does Not Mean The End Of OPECByMichael Lynch,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I analyze petroleum economics and energy policy.Follow AuthorMay 15, 2026, 08:04am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.BERLIN, GERMANY - APRIL 17: Suhail Mohamed Faraj Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy and Industry, United Arab Emirates speaks during the 'Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue' on April 17, 2018 in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Janine Schmitz/Photothek via Getty Images)Photothek via Getty ImagesDoes the exit of the U.A.E. from OPEC signal a major change in the organization and its impact on oil markets? Many feel that it could, either as other nations decide that they, too, should exit the organization or that a price war will develop in retaliation to the move. Either could mean the group’s influence wanes or it even dissolves.Of course, rumors of OPEC’s death have been greatly exaggerated, as Mark Twain once said. The organization is inactive or irrelevant for lengthy periods when the market is in balance or, less often, when the group has no spare capacity to raise production. Like dieters who are successful when there is no ice cream in the house, members don’t cheat on quotas when they have no extra capacity available.And when the price collapses, as in 1986, 1998, 2014 and 2020, some thought that the group has failed as so many others before them. Yet each time it has risen Phoenix-like to re-establish something close to their desired price, although often at lower than the pre-collapse level. Obviously, past exits from the group such as by Indonesia or Ecuador (twice) did not raise concerns; the first became a net importer, the latter was never a major exporter. Other countries, most notably Iraq in the late 1980s, Venezuela in the 1990s and Iraq again now, have violated their quotas but didn’t disc...