UAE summer to get hotter, more humid in 2026? Why El Niño may return to GCC
The UAE and the wider Gulf region could be heading for a hotter, more humid summer, as early indicators point to the possible return of the El Niño climate phenomenon later this year, according to global climate models and meteorological agencies.
Storm Centre reported that El Niño is likely to begin between May and July 2026, with an estimated 61 per cent chance of persisting through the end of the year. The account cited updates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, along with projections from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.
The outlook is supported by a clear rise in subsurface ocean temperatures across the Pacific and a forecast weakening of equatorial trade winds, both key indicators of El Niño development.
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The event is expected to peak during the autumn and early winter of 2026–2027. There is also the possibility that it could intensify significantly, potentially approaching a 'Super El Niño' threshold of +2°C if westerly wind bursts persist through the summer, although this scenario remains uncertain.
Globally, El Niño typically weakens the Atlantic hurricane season, disrupts the Indian monsoon, increases rainfall across parts of the Americas, and contributes to additional global warming that could extend into 2027.
Regionally, its effects may be felt across the Arabian Peninsula. Disruptions to the Indian monsoon could shift moisture westward, enhancing humidity over the Arabian Sea and improving rainfall prospects for Yemen and Oman in late summer and autumn.
Looking ahead to winter, the likelihood of upper-level troughs and rain-bearing systems affecting the Gulf, particularly the northern and eastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, is expected to increase. These conditions could become more pronounced if El Niño coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), raising the chances of wetter-than-average conditions across parts of the region.
These projections are echoed by regional experts. According to Al Khaleej newspaper, Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Emirates Astronomy Society and a member of the Arab Union for Space and Astronomy Sciences, said there is a possibility that El Niño could begin forming during the summer in the UAE, particularly in June and July, with initial signs of Pacific Ocean warming expected between August and November 2026.
He explained that El Niño is a recurring climate pattern that occurs every two to seven years and is typically associated with higher temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, and increased humidity along the Arabian Gulf coasts, including the UAE, Qatar, and eastern Saudi Arabia. It is also sometimes linked to relatively weaker northwesterly winds during the summer.
Al Jarwan added that during autumn, El Niño may increase the likelihood of tropical systems developing in the Arabian Sea and enhance cyclone activity toward the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, while improving seasonal rainfall prospects, particularly over the southern parts of the Arabian Peninsula. In the UAE, the phenomenon could lead to above-average temperatures and a higher chance of rainfall, especially during the autumn months.
