Twice-convicted criminal Marine Le Pen remains the favourite to become the next President of France - despite being ordered to wear an electronic tag

By JOE ROSSITER, REPORTER and PETER ALLEN Published: 19:50, 12 July 2026 | Updated: 19:50, 12 July 2026 Twice-convicted criminal Marine Le Pen remains the strong favourite to become the next French president, an opinion poll suggests. Le Pen, 57, had her conviction for embezzling millions from the European Parliament upheld by appeal court judges in Paris last week, a decision many expected to lead to her abandoning a fourth bid for the Elysee Palace. But the far-right National Rally leader said she would continue in her effort to replace incumbent Emmanuel Macron, with a new poll showing her dominating the first round of voting. With 34 per cent of the vote, an Elabe poll for French outlets BFM TV and La Tribune Dimanche suggests Le Pen would easily advance to a second-round run-off in next year's election. Her nearest rivals sit between 14 and 16 per cent in the poll, which also suggested Le Pen would win a head-to-head against far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon with more than 67 per cent support. Edouard Philippe, a centrist and prime minister under Macron from 2017 to 2020, would win 48 per cent of the vote and lose in a run-off against Le Pen, according to the poll. Le Pen confirmed after the court's decision on Tuesday that she would run for the presidency and appeal the latest judgement to France's highest court. 'The campaign begins tonight,' she told French television, adding she would 'pursue all legal avenues' to fight her embezzlement conviction. Twice-convicted criminal Marine Le Pen is leading the race for the French presidency, a poll has shown Le Pen was found guilty again last week of misusing €2.8million (£2.4million) in EU funds as part of a fake jobs scheme. She was initially found guilty in March last year after a court found she used European Parliament funds to pay her own party employees instead of parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016. During the case the prosecution argued the officials hired rarely set foot in the European Parliament and did not play an active role there. Among the employees were Le Pen's personal assistant Catherine Griset, who attended the parliament building for 12 hours between August 2014 and October 2015. Le Pen denied organising the scheme but previously called it 'a mistake'. She was handed a four-year jail term, of which two years were suspended and two were to be served at home with an electronic tag, and a five-year ban from standing for election. Le Pen would beat both far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon and centrist Edouard Philippe, the data suggests Though the appeal court found her guilty of misusing the funds again on Tuesday, it ruled she could stand for the presidency while wearing a tag. That order is now suspended until the new appeal reaches a verdict, likely to be early next year - the presidential election is set for April with a potential run-off in May. Before last week's verdict Le Pen had said repeatedly she would not run for president if she had to wear a tag because she would not feel 'totally free' to campaign. There had been speculation she would hand the National Rally candidacy to the party's 30-year-old president, Jordan Bardella. However she said her campaign to 'begin the rebirth of France' would begin immediately and that she would not change her mind. Le Pen was expected to hand the National Rally candidacy to party president Jordan Bardella, 30, were her appeal not successful Mr Bardella said his support for Le Pen was 'absolute', adding: 'My loyalty will never waver based on circumstances.' Sunday's favourable poll reinforced the possibility of a convicted criminal entering the Elysee Palace for the first time. Marine Tondelier, leader of the French Greens, said in a 'normal world' where the National Rally had 'even the slightest shred of morality', Le Pen would quit the race for the presidency. Ms Tondelier added: 'One cannot decently stand for election after having been convicted in this way for misappropriating public funds, even ​if one remains eligible.'