Trump's war on Iran has changed the Middle East forever. It just might have changed the shape of Europe, too

Published: 15:43, 2 June 2026 | Updated: 15:49, 2 June 2026 Whether or not a deal between the US and Iran is imminent, we can be confident that the Middle East has changed forever and, with it, the politics of oil. The genie is out of the bottle. Iran has the capacity, now and in the future, to close down the supply of oil, liquified natural gas and vital oil-derived products such as jet fuel and fertiliser, through the world’s most important hydrocarbon shipping route, the Persian Gulf. Even if normal traffic resumes in a month or so as the mullahs have indicated, the threat to world trade remains - as shipping owners, insurance firms and hungry economies around the world know all too well. This is why, away from the daily news coverage of blasts and bullets, diplomats and engineers are working overtime to find alternative ways to transport oil from the likes of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the states of the United Arab Emirates. Trump's decision to bomb Iran has changed the Middle East in perpetuity With the Persian Gulf still blocked, attention is turning to the eastern Mediterranean, the doorstep of Europe and a hinge between Europe and Asia And it’s why attention is turning to the eastern Mediterranean, the doorstep of Europe and a hinge between West and East. Asia Minor is arguably the geo-political turning point of the world itself.  With oil exports through the Gulf currently blocked by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has turned to a pipeline running west across the desert to the Red Sea coast. There, the oil is pumped aboard tankers heading through the Suez Canal to Port Said - in the Eastern Mediterranean. There are other pipelines, too, connecting rival Gulf nations - Iran, Iraq, Kuwait – with the Mediterranean ports. These run overland through Turkey, whose infrastructure also pumps oil and gas from fields Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan – three Turkic nations which can count themselves winners from the current conflict. As can Turkey itself. Geographically crucial – the point at which Russia, Europe and Asia meet – Turkey is leveraging its diplomatic position also: a NATO member which boasts a good relationship with America yet maintains links with Moscow and Tehran. Turkey is a key player in constructing another new east-west trade route, the so-called Middle Corridor, through Armenia and Azerbaijan which will ultimately connect Chinese factories with Turkish ports and the Western markets - while avoiding Russia and Russian influence. Russia has historically maintained a tight grip over trade running through the Caucasus. Putin's invasion of Ukraine and withdrawal of troops from the region has put an end to that.   Energy supplies will go in the opposite direction, of course – from the Gulf and the near East, to Asia and the hungry Asian markets. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline at the Ceyhan crude oil terminal near Turkey's southern coastal city of Adana. Linking Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, it is seen by the West as a hugely important oil link which loosens Russian influence over exports from the Caspian A map showing the shipping trapped in the Persian Gulf. The war has demonstrated that Iran can close shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz - and in the future No wonder Turkey has been promoting the Middle Corridor as a Strait of Hormuz alternative. And no wonder that Ankara is feeling confident when it comes to asserting itself on the world stage. This coming week will see to see the Turkish parliament enshrine its expansionist Mavi Vatan – or Blue Homeland – policy as national law, under which Turkey claims sovereignty over a large portion of the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara has formal control over very little water at present despite 1000km of Mediterranean coastline. No doubt there will be an explosive diplomatic confrontation with Greece - which claims the majority of the contested area - and the European Union over this.  Ye the facts on the ground are very clear.  Putin's invasion of Ukraine and then Trump's bombing of Iran have exposed the EU as geopolitically vulnerable - which is to say hopelessly dependent on others for its oil and armaments. Turkey is already a significant player in both fields.  So, it might well be that Trump’s ‘little excursion’ will end up reshaping not just the Middle East, but Europe, too. No comments have so far been submitted. 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