Trump’s crumbling ceasefire is now a major personal crisis

The most serious escalation in fighting between the US and Iran since the April ceasefire has left the truce at risk of collapse, threatening a personal crisis for Donald Trump and global economic pain.

Iran fired missiles and drones at US bases and its Gulf neighbours overnight, killing one and injuring more than 60 in a strike on Kuwait’s international airport. The Iranian military also claimed an attack on a US navy base in Bahrain.

Tehran said the strikes were in retaliation after US Central Command forces launched “self-defence” attacks against sites on Iran’s Qeshm island, and fired a missile at an Iranian tanker that the US military said was attempting to break its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The exchange of fire is just the latest in a recent surge of violence, and with negotiations at an impasse, the ceasefire appears increasingly at risk.

Uptick in strikes could spiral 

Sporadic clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, where both the US and Iran are imposing their own blockades, have given way to higher-intensity warfare.

Last week, the US bombed Iranian boats and missile sites around the waterway in what it described as defensive actions, alleging that the boats were laying mines.

Tehran’s overnight strikes mark its heaviest known use of force during the truce, and shattered a brief period of respite for the Gulf states, with commercial flights once again suspended over Kuwait.

While both Iran and the US have signalled that they would prefer to avoid a full-scale resumption of hostilities, both still have militaries on high alert, with a major American force still within striking distance and Iran rushing to repair its missile infrastructure after war damage.

Analysts say the rules of engagement appear ill-defined and prone to escalation risks.   

Dr Andreas Krieg, a Gulf security analyst at the War Studies department at King’s College London, said: “We are in a very unstable phase in a grey zone between war and peace where neither side wants to return to full war. But the parameters and boundaries of acceptable behaviour are not well defined allowing for serious spikes of military escalation.”

Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes neither side is in control.

“Though neither Washington nor Tehran may be keen to restart a full-scale confrontation, the exchanges reflect the inherent volatility of an unstable truce and each side’s willingness to push the boundaries of the ceasefire,” he said. “Absent a deal that silences the guns, the possibility that this increasing friction could escalate, whether by design or circumstance, is very much there.”

Dangerous limbo 

Iran announced its withdrawal from indirect talks with the US this week, citing Israel’s bombing of Lebanon, highlighting the lack of progress in diplomacy since the April ceasefire.

Trump and US officials have said repeatedly that a deal is close, only for talks to break down, with even a much-hyped memorandum of understanding proving elusive. 

The two sides remain far apart, with Tehran resisting concessions over its nuclear or missile programmes, and demanding sanctions relief, reparations, and power over Hormuz, while Trump insists that Iran will hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and reopen Hormuz without seeing a dollar in relief or reparations. 

Escalating violence against the backdrop of diplomatic impasse is dangerous, says Krieg, adding that no resolution appears imminent.

“The grey zone phase will remain until a comprehensive deal is signed and that could be months if not years,” he said.

And other countries in the region have their own agendas. Iran’s longtime foe Israel is escalating war in Lebanon against Tehran’s ally, Hezbollah, and top officials have called for a return to war with Iran. 

Misery in the White House

Trump has bounced between positions on Iran since the ceasefire, including threats, declarations of disinterest, and flattering the Iranian regime. “I’d like to meet him,” the President said of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Wednesday.

But the mood is said to be souring in the White House as a conflict billed as a weeks-long “excursion” swamps every other priority while draining the President and his party’s popularity and driving up costs.

A White House insider told Politico this week “The administration is all-consumed by this conflict. They’re pretty much in a funk with it — or fatigue — in that there’s nothing happening.”

“Even if there are wins, no one’s communicating them. There’s just no other play outside of — we are stuck in this quicksand of Iran.”

Trump’s approval rating has reached historic lows and large majorities of Americans oppose the war, polls show. Gas prices are more than 40 per cent higher than pre-war – an ominous indicator ahead of the November midterm elections, where Republican control of both houses of Congress is at risk.

Rising domestic dismay is likely to be driving Trump’s determination to seal a deal and avoid a return to war, said Dr Giorgios Samaras, a US politics and foreign policy specialist at King’s College London.

“He is probably looking at his approval ratings, which have collapsed,” he said. “He’s aware of rising costs for Americans that are reaching heights they did not experience under [Joe] Biden. And he somehow has to satisfy his voters.”

“It’s a personal crisis and he has no way out. When people are paying $5 a gallon, why would they care what is saying he has achieved in Iran?”

The consequences of a return to war – or even a protracted stalemate – are likely to be increasingly damaging to the global economy.

The UK energy regulator, Ofgem, has announced a higher cap for fuel bills, citing the Iran war.

The International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Trade Organisation warned last week that closure of Hormuz could lead to fuel and fertiliser shortages around the world, with devastating impacts in developing countries.