Trump-Şi zirvesinde ekonomi, teknoloji ve jeopolitik konular masada

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Özbuğutu, Burhan Sansarlıoğlu, Yunus Türk14 Mayıs 2026•Güncelleme: 14 Mayıs 2026İstanbulABD Başkanı Donald Trump'ın Çin ziyareti, siyasetin olduğu kadar küresel ekonominin de odağında. Trump'ın Çin Devlet Başkanı Şi Cinping ile bir araya gelmesi kapsamında, öncelik olarak diplomasi ve dış politikaya dayalı konuların yer alması beklenirken ekonomik meselelerin de ele alınacağı öngörülüyor. İkilinin bir araya geldiği ilk görüşmede olumlu mesajlar verildi. Çin Devlet Başkanı Şi, "Çin ve ABD zamanın sorunlarına birlikte yanıt vermeli." derken, ABD Başkanı Trump "Zorluklarla karşılaştığımızda üstesinden gelmeyi bildik. Birlikte harika bir geleceğimiz olacak." ifadesini kullandı. Ziyarette, tarafların gümrük tarifeleri, Tayvan ve ABD/İsrail-İran Savaşı konularının ele alınması bekleniyor. Çin, İran ile ekonomik bağları nedeniyle önemli bir diplomatik oyuncu olarak görülüyor. Her iki liderin havacılık, tarım ve enerji alanlarındaki konuları görüşmesi öngörülürken her iki taraf halihazırda Çin’in Boeing uçakları ve soya fasulyesi alımına ilişkin olası gelişmeleri görüşüyor. Trump ile Şi en son geçen yıl ekim ayında görüşmüştü. Uzmanlar, kritik zirvenin olası sonuçları ile görüşmelerin küresel ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerini AA muhabirine değerlendirdi. Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Arzu Al, ABD Başkanı Trump ile Çin Devlet Başkanı Şi'nin görüşmesinde enerji, yapay zeka ve teknoloji şirketlerinin öne çıkmasının küresel güç mücadelesinde ekonomi ve politik dengelerin yeniden şekillendiğini gösterdiğini söyledi. Al, günümüzde küresel güç mücadelesinin merkezi klasik askeri kapasitenin yanında teknoloji üretimi, veri kontrolü, enerji altyapısı ve yarı iletken ekosistemleri haline geldiğini ifade etti. Yapay zeka yarışına bakıldığında ABD'nin halen özel sektör yatırımları, ileri çip teknolojileri ve kapalı model mimarileri açısından lider konumunu sürdürdüğünü kaydeden Al, "Ancak Çin de farkı hızlı biçimde kapatıyor. Özellikle açık kaynak yapay zeka modellerinde, veri ölçeğinde ve devlet destekli teknoloji yatırımlarında oldukça agresif bir strateji izliyor. Bu nedenle teknoloji şirketleri artık ekonomik aktörler olarak tanımlanmıyor. Doğrudan devletlerin jeoekonomik araçları haline geliyorlar." diye konuştu. Prof. Dr. Arzu Al, nadir toprak elementlerinin ihracat kısıtlamaları, çip ambargoları ve enerji altyapısına yönelik baskıların da yeni dönemin temel mücadele araçları arasında öne çıktığına işaret etti. Şirketler ile devletler arasındaki sınırların giderek daha bulanık hale geldiğini kaydeden Al, "Bugün birçok ülke, Çin’in düşük iş gücü maliyetleri, yüksek üretim kapasitesi ve devlet destekli sanayi modeli nedeniyle ithalatını giderek artırıyor. Bu durum da küresel ekonomide Çin’e olan bağımlılığı her geçen gün daha derin hale getiriyor." dedi. Al, özellikle elektronik, yarı iletken ekipmanları, batarya teknolojileri, nadir toprak elementleri, güneş panelleri ve ara mal üretiminde Çin merkezli tedarik zincirlerinin küresel ekonominin omurgasına dönüşmüş durumda olduğunu bildirdi. Prof. Dr. Arzu Al, Hürmüz Boğazı çevresindeki gerilimlerin enerji tedarikini tehdit etmesinin küresel üretim zincirlerinde ciddi maliyet artışlarına yol açtığını kaydederek, benzer bir durumun üretim tarafında Çin üzerinden yaşanması halinde ortaya çıkabilecek sonuçların çok daha ağır olabildiğini ifade etti. Çin'in ABD dahil herhangi bir ülkeye yönelik ihracat kısıtlaması uygulaması ya da stratejik sektörlerde belirli ürünlerin satışını durdurması halinde, küresel üretim zincirlerinde ciddi kırılmaların yaşanabildiğini belirten Al, "Özellikle yüksek teknoloji üretimi, otomotiv, savunma sanayisi, yenilenebilir enerji ekipmanları ve ilaç sektörleri doğrudan etkilenebilir. Çünkü birçok ülke üretim kapasitesini yıllar boyunca maliyet avantajı nedeniyle Çin'e bağımlı hale getirdi ve kısa vadede alternatif tedarik ağları oluşturmak oldukça zor görünüyor." açıklamasını yaptı. Al, günümüzde ortaya çıkan tablonun yalnızca klasik ticari ilişkiler üzerinden okunduğun eksik kalacağını belirterek, şunları kaydetti: "ABD askeri güç, dolar sistemi ve küresel finans mimarisi üzerinden hegemonik kapasitesini sürdürürken Çin de üretim gücü, sanayi kapasitesi ve tedarik zincirleri üzerindeki hakimiyetiyle küresel ekonomi üzerinde benzer ölçekte bir etki alanı oluşturuyor. Başka bir ifadeyle Washington finansal sistemin merkezini kontrol ederken Pekin küresel üretim sisteminin merkezinde konumlanıyor." Bahçeşehir Üniversitesi Öğretim Üyesi Dr. Rahmi İncekara da ABD Başkanı Donald Trump'ın Çin ziyaretinin Çin-ABD ilişkilerini bir kez daha küresel gündemin merkezine taşıdığını belirtti. Trump'ın geçen yıl ekim ayında Çin Devlet Başkanı Şi Cinping ile yaptığı son ikili görüşmeyle müjdelediği, Çin ile yapılan "büyük, güzel anlaşmanın" nihayet dünyaya açıklanma şansının doğduğu an olmasının beklendiğini söyleyen İncekara, her ne kadar beklentiler yüksek olsa da bu beklentilerin ortaya çıkan gerçeklerle hayal kırıklığına dönüşmesi ihtimalinin de bulunduğunu kaydetti. İncekara, Çin'in, toplantıya güçlü bir konumdan girdiğine dikkati çekerek, "Çin'in ihracat rakamları rekor seviyelere ulaştı. Bu durum, ABD ile bağların zayıflamasıyla birlikte dünyanın dört bir yanında yeni ticaret ortakları edinmesinin bir sonucu olarak da okunmalıdır. Çin, kendi gelişmiş çiplerini üretme ve Nvidia gibi Batılı firmalara olan bağımlılığını azaltma çabalarının yanı sıra robotik alanına da yoğun yatırım yapmaya devam etti." dedi. Trump yönetiminin ise Çin'i soya fasulyesi ve uçak parçaları da dahil hayati önem taşıyan ABD endüstrilerinden daha fazla mal satın almaya zorlamaya çalışacak gibi göründüğünü dile getiren İncekara, Trump’ın, Çin’e gerçekleştireceği resmi ziyarette teknoloji, finans, havacılık ve ticaret alanlarında faaliyet gösteren 16 Amerikan şirketinin temsilcileri yer aldığına vurgu yaptı. İncekara, heyette, çip üretimi, yapay zeka, bilişim teknolojileri gibi ABD'nin Çin'e ihracatını kontrol altına almak istediği kritik sektörlerdeki şirketlerin temsilcilerine yer verildiğini aktararak, "Bu yöneticiler, sosyal medyadan tüketici elektroniğine, bilgisayar çiplerinden ticari üretime, sağlıktan gıdaya kadar ABD iş dünyasının geniş bir yelpazesini temsil ediyor." dedi. Çin ekonomisine dair çalışmalarıyla tanınan, eğitimci ve yazar Fatih Oktay ise ABD Başkanı Trump'ın Çin'e karşı uyguladığı ilave gümrük vergileri, Çinli şirketlere kısıtlama adımları ve nadir toprak elementleri konularıyla iki ülke arasında yüksek seyreden tansiyonun son dönemde sakinleştiğini belirtti. İki ülkenin bu sakinliği koruduğuna dikkati çeken Oktay, "Çin'in bu görüşmedeki ilk amacı bu huzuru korumak olacaktır. Trump, beklenmedik çıkışlar yapabilen bir isim, dolayısıyla onu mutlu edip, iki ülke arasındaki bu sakinliğin sürmesi öncelik olacak. Çin, ekonomik ve teknolojik gelişimine odaklanmak istiyor." dedi. Oktay, ABD ile Çin arasında gerçekleştirilecek görüşmenin devamının geleceğini ifade ederek, her şeyin ilk görüşmede bitmeyeceğini dile getirdi. Trump'ın, Çin'e öngörülemeyen talepleri gitmesi durumunda, görüşmelerin tahmin edilenden zorlu geçeceğinin altını çizen Oktay, teknoloji, yapay zeka, havacılık ve gıda gibi kritik sektörlerde karşılıklı anlaşma paketleri sunulabileceğini kaydetti. Oktay, şu değerlendirmelerde bulundu: "Büyük bir ihtimalle görüşmeler sakin ilerleyecek, iki ülke arasındaki ilişkilerde büyük bir değişim olmayacak. ABD ile Çin'in en yoğun yarıştığı cephe, yapay zeka. Hepsinin önüne geçiyor buradaki çatışma. Burada iş birlikleri sağlanabilir." Asya piyasaları analisti Sadi Kaymaz ise "Bu görüşmeleri evvela stratejik rekabet eksenine oturtmak lazım. Şu bakımdan, tarafların ilişkileri dostluk rotasına çevirmesi, yakın işbirliği istikametine çevirmesi imkansız." dedi. Çin'in gündeminde her zaman olduğu gibi Tayvan'ın en büyük öncelik olduğunu belirten Kaymaz, ayrıca Çin tarafının bu toplantılarda teknoloji, çip ihracat kısıtlamalarını hafifletmek gibi demirbaş bir amaç güttüğünü ifade etti. Kaymaz, Trump'ın ise pazarın ABD şirketlerine daha fazla açılması, tarım ürünleri ihracatının güçlendirilmesi gibi isteklerle Şi Cinping karşısında yerini alacağını dile getirdi. Bu noktada görüşmenin en dikkati çekici yanlarından birinin kapalı kapılar ardındaki İran meselesi olacağını vurgulayan Kaymaz, "ABD basınına konuşan Beyaz Saray kaynakları, Donald Trump'ın İran'a baskı yapması için Şi Cinping'i ikna etmeye çalışacağını belirtiyor." diye konuştu. Kaymaz, bu noktada Çin'in İran üzerinde Hürmüz Boğazı konusunda sanıldığı kadar etkisinin olduğunu düşünmediğini belirterek, o bakımdan Tahran yönetiminin Hürmüz Boğazı kararında Çin tarafının önemli bir belirleyici rol oynamayacağı öngörüsünde bulundu. Kaymaz, "Şu da var elbette, Trump'ın amaçlarından biri Çin'i İran petrolünden uzaklaştırmak. Bana sorarsanız işte bu noktada alımları ticari çerçevede çekici bulan Çin'in karşı taleplerle bu alanda geri adım atma ihtimali bulunuyor." değerlendirmesinde bulundu. 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