TMC’s southern fortress: For BJP, its path to power in Bengal runs through 111 Presidency seats

While the battle for West Bengal rages in the ongoing Assembly elections, it is the Trinamool Congress (TMC)’s fortress in the Presidency division region, covering 111 Assembly seats, that the ruling party must defend as the Opposition BJP aims to form its first government in the state. The Presidency division is one of five such administrative regions in Bengal and comprises the electoral districts of Kolkata North, Kolkata South, Howrah, Nadia, North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas – where the TMC has consolidated its presence since it first came to power in 2011. The Presidency division, along with the Hooghly and Purba Bardhaman districts, will vote on April 29 in the second phase. While Kolkata North and South together have 14 Assembly seats, Howrah has 16 seats, Nadia 17 seats, North 24 Parganas 33 seats, and South 24 Parganas 31 seats. In the 2006 Assembly polls, the CPI(M)-led Left Front won 72 of these 111 seats. But in 2011, the TMC and Congress combined turned the tables by winning 89 seats in these areas. In 2016, the TMC further consolidated its position, winning 91 seats. In 2021, despite the BJP’s push, particularly following its strong showing in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the TMC further strengthened its base in the Presidency division with a tally of 96 seats. Though the BJP became the state’s primary Opposition in 2021 by winning 77 seats, it could only win 14 seats in the Presidency division. The remaining seat in the region was won by the Indian Secular Front (ISF), a Left ally. In 2021, while the BJP performed well in north Bengal, it stumbled in south Bengal and its penetration was halted in the Presidency division. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP increased its vote share in these districts and led 21 Assembly segments, while the TMC was ahead in 90 seats. That year, the BJP had won 12 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal, down from 18 in the 2019 parliamentary polls. The significance of the Presidency division is exemplified by the fact that five Chief Ministers have contested in this region. While the CPI(M)’s Jyoti Basu initially contested Baranagar in North 24 Parganas, he later shifted to Satgachia, from where he became the CM for five consecutive terms. The CPI(M)’s Buddhadeb Bhattacharya first contested Kashipur-Belgachhia in Kolkata and later shifted to Jadavpur, from where he won consecutively six times and was the CM for his last two terms. Incumbent CM Mamata Banerjee won Kolkata’s Bhabanipur in 2011 and 2016, and in a 2021 bypoll. The Presidency division, particularly the Howrah, North and South 24 Parganas districts, has a sizeable minority population, considered the TMC’s strongest voter base. “These 111 seats are assured to us. Over the years, we have consolidated our position in these areas and other areas in Bengal. This is one of our strongest bases. How can BJP think of defeating us in Bengal?” said a senior TMC leader. Meanwhile, the BJP is desperately trying to breach this TMC bastion. It has made some progress in Matua-dominated seats in North 24 Parganas and Nadia. In the 2021 Assembly polls, the BJP won 14 seats in the Presidency division, of which 9 were in Nadia, where the TMC won 8 seats. The BJP’s remaining seats in the Presidency division were in North 24 Parganas. However, in the remaining districts of the Presidency division, the BJP failed to win any seats in 2021. In the 2024 Lok Sabha poll, the BJP secured a lead in 11 of Nadia’s Assembly segments, with the TMC ahead in just 6 segments. In North 24 Parganas, too, the BJP increased its vote share and managed to lead in 8 Assembly segments, though the TMC remained ahead in 25 segments. In Kolkata North, the BJP led in 2 Assembly segments. However, in the South 24 Parganas, Howrah and Kolkata South districts, the BJP was unable to win any seats. Explaining the party’s struggles in the region, a senior BJP leader said, “We are organisationally very weak against the TMC in the Presidency division. The TMC used its machinery in these areas and randomly did rigging and false polling. But this time, they will not be able to do that. If the Election Commission does its duties properly, the people will provide a surprising result in this division. We will open our account not only in South 24 Parganas and Howrah, but also win almost half of these seats.” Rahul Sinha, a BJP Rajya Sabha MP, said, “This time, the election is entirely different. You will be surprised to see the result. What you now see as a TMC stronghold, after the election, you will see how these areas fall. People will vote for change. The results will prove all calculations wrong.” However, the TMC still believes it has the edge in the Presidency division. “Because of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), we will not only defend our bastion but also increase our tally because in these areas Matuas had voted for the BJP in past elections, but due to the SIR, they are mostly suffering,” said TMC spokesperson Arup Chakraborty. Ravik Bhattacharya is a highly experienced and award-winning journalist currently s... Read More Atri Mitra is a highly accomplished Special Correspondent for The Indian Express, bringing Read More