The split driving 2026’s most closely watched Senate race: From the Politics Desk

From the Politics DeskThe split driving 2026’s most closely watched Senate race: From the Politics DeskPlus, a look at diverging interests among conservatives in the three branches of the federal government.Listen to this article with a free profile00:0000:00Graham Platner, a Maine Democrat and U.S. Senate candidate, during an interview in York, Maine, in April.Sofia Aldinio for NBC NewsShareAdd NBC News to GoogleJuly 2, 2026, 5:23 PM EDTBy The Politics DeskWelcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.Limited time: Save 25% on NBC News subscriptionGet exclusive reporting, live Q&As and ad-free reading.In today’s edition, we look at the latest in how the conservative majority at the Supreme Court and the GOP majorities across the street at the Capitol are handling President Donald Trump. Plus, Jonathan Allen digs into some new polling data in Maine’s hotly contested Senate race. Programming note: The newsletter will be on summer break Friday, July 3, through the end of next week. Our next edition will hit your inbox on Monday, July 13.Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.— Scott BlandThe split driving 2026’s most closely watched Senate raceAnalysis by Jonathan AllenDemocrat Graham Platner has branded himself as a working-class champion against Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. But that’s not the set of voters who have put him within striking distance of an upset that could alter the balance of power in Washington. A late-June New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll of 608 likely Maine voters found Platner up 49%-47%, which is well within the margin of error. A Fox News survey of registered voters has Collins, who has held the seat for 30 years, up 50%-47%, a spread that is also well within the margin of error. The crosstabs from both surveys tell an interesting story about how Platner’s nar...