The ‘repulsive’ Trump mini-me who will decide his fate

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Everything, they say, is bigger in Texas. Certainly, Donald Trump could not be placing a larger bet on the Lone Star State in November’s mid-term elections.

Either his actions are those of a Machiavellian political genius, or he’s a reckless fool who is carelessly placing the future of the Republican majority in the Senate in the hands of Texas voters. Whatever the case, thanks to Trump’s intervention last month, Texas is suddenly in play.

Until mid-May, Senator John Cornyn – a fixture on Capitol Hill for the past 23 years – was considered a popular and solid Republican bet for re-election this November. But then, Trump pulled the rug out from under him, deeming Cornyn insufficiently loyal.

Instead, in the state’s Republican primary, the President endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Days after Trump gave Cornyn the thumbs down, loyalists within his Make America Great Again (Maga) voter base did their President’s bidding. After a staggering $130m (£96m) was spent on the most expensive Senate primary in history, Cornyn was cast aside in favour of his scandal-drenched rival.

Down to the tips of his cowboy boots, Ken Paxton is a Trump mini-me. A right-winger who has pledged fealty to the President’s “America First” ideology, his career has been pockmarked by investigations, indictments and even an impeachment.

In 2015, he was indicted on charges of securities fraud, a case that dragged on for nine years and closed with an agreement that required him to pay restitution and complete community service. The charges were then dismissed.

In 2020, a group of whistleblowers reported Paxton to the FBI, alleging that he had abused the powers of his office to assist a political donor. That complaint eventually led to Paxton’s May 2023 impeachment by the Texas House of Representatives, where scores of his fellow Republicans backed his removal from office.

His job was only saved by loyalists in the Texas Senate who voted to acquit Paxton four months later. But the vote caused rancour and bitter splits among the state’s Republicans.

Paxton’s backers would soon be put to a fresh test. Last July, his wife – herself a member of the Texas Senate – announced that after 38 years of marriage, she was “filing for divorce on biblical grounds”. Paxton, who has placed his Christian faith at the centre of his political activities, was accused of adultery. The revelations led the National Republican Senatorial Committee to describe Paxton as “truly repulsive and disgusting”. Paxton hasn’t denied the affair.

Thanks to Trump, Paxton has now been afforded a new lease on life and Republicans on Capitol Hill must come to terms with the fact that the future of the Senate may hinge on his ability to retain Cornyn’s seat.

Standing in his way is this year’s Democratic Party wunderkind, James Talarico. A native of Round Rock, just north of Austin, Democrats now hope he will prove to be an immovable object that finally allows them to achieve a decades-long goal of turning Texas into a competitive, battleground state.

At 37 years old and bearing cherubic looks that testify to his youth, Talarico is one of the fastest rising stars of the Democratic Party. A former high school teacher and seminary student, in 2018, he won a seat in the Texas State Legislature, where he has been a passionate advocate for abortion rights, gun control, and increased funding for education.

Now, Paxton is branding him “Talafreako”, claiming his Democratic opponent’s progressive positions are anathema to generations of Texas voters. He’s amplified false claims that Talarico is a vegan (he isn’t) and is warning voters that a win by the Democrat could prove devastating to the Texas tradition of barbecue (it won’t be).

“Some people know him as ‘Tofu Talarico’. Some people call him ‘Six Gender Jimmy'”, Paxton told supporters at his victory rally last week, in a clear indication that – like the President he supports – nicknames are going to be a centrepiece of his campaign, along with a determination to target his rival’s progressive positions as too left for Texas.

Talarico is taking the high road. “They’re going to throw everything they have at us”, he told a group of supporters gathered in a popular San Antonio music venue last Friday. “There is something happening in Texas”, he promised voters. “I feel it in my bones that we’re going to win this election”.

But Democrats have been making that prediction in Texas for decades. The state has twice rejected an earlier version of Talarico – the then-youthful Beto O’Rourke, who failed to win a Senate seat in 2018, then failed to become the state’s governor four years later. In both races, Democrats dared to dream that his energy, drive and charisma could finally help turn the state blue.

Talarico is hoping to capitalise on fresh shifts in Texas demographics that are diluting the influence of the state’s Republican-leaning “good ole’ boys” and rednecks with the presence of more Black and Latino voters on electoral rolls. But his greatest weapon may be Paxton himself, and the scandals that have tainted him.

The first poll since Cornyn’s defeat showed that were the election taking place today, Talarico would beat Paxton by three points and deliver a huge blow to Trump’s reputation. Talarico’s chances are being boosted by the state of the economy, the soaring price of petrol and the fears of thousands of military families in Texas whose loved ones are participating in Trump’s war on Iran.

But the election is still five months away. Democrats have had their dreams dashed in Texas before at the hands of voters who have stubbornly stuck with the Republicans. But in Paxton, they have never had a weaker opponent.

Trump is placing a Texas-sized bet on his mini-me, and it may not pay off.