The Liberals have made an offer to One Nation that is more desperate than strategic and Pauline Hanson could be making a big mistake by accepting it: Peter Van Onselen

By PETER VAN ONSELEN, POLITICAL EDITOR, AUSTRALIA Published: 23:31, 10 June 2026 | Updated: 23:32, 10 June 2026 Liberal Party frontbencher Tony Pasin has tried to dress up panic as strategy.  In an interview with The Australian, Angus Taylor's numbers man floated a very desperate and entirely self-serving idea: the Liberal Party and One Nation should sit down and carve up the electoral map so they do not 'cannibalise' each other. It might sound like hard-headed conservative realism to some, but it's nothing of the sort. It's just an incumbent Liberal MP trying to turn Pauline Hanson into a protection service for the very major party machine her voters increasingly despise. Pasin even provided a helpful example of how this cartel would operate: the Liberals could support One Nation in the Labor-held seat of Spence, provided One Nation leaves the Liberals alone in Grey, which it currently holds. 'Conservatives then get two seats for the price of one,' he cleverly hypothesised, as if he'd uncovered some political genius. So incumbent Liberals get to survive, and One Nation only contests Labor and Nationals-held seats? What on earth is in that deal for One Nation? And talk about throwing your Coalition partner under a bus! Despite Liberals holding a record low number of seats right now, Pasin is trying to outsource the task of winning seats back off of Labor to One Nation.  Unless he plans on telling us which Liberal MPs need to be forced into retirement so that only One Nation contests those seats too? Liberal Party frontbencher Tony Pasin has tried to dress up panic as strategy. It has the faintly ridiculous air of a suburban Treaty of Tordesillas about it, the 1494 agreement that divided newly claimed lands outside Europe between Spain and Portugal.  Pasin is standing in for Pope Alexander VI, calmly dividing up the electoral world between two great powers, except that in this case the prize is not the New World but a handful of frightened Liberal incumbents hoping Pauline Hanson agrees not to hurt them. And the modern Liberal Party is far from great. It's all so convenient. Pasin holds Barker, a South Australian seat where One Nation came third at the last election. A prime target for Team Hanson you'd have to think. Unless, that is, Pasin's brilliant idea comes to fruition. His proposal isn't some grand realignment of the right, it's a non-compete clause written by one of the competitors. He wants Hanson's movement to be insurgent in Labor seats and deferential in Liberal ones. That's not strategy, it's self-preservation. If the Nationals aren't part of this arrangement, Pasin is effectively suggesting One Nation should avoid hurting Liberal incumbents while remaining free to rampage through regional conservative territory where Nationals MPs are exposed.  A desperate Liberal ratting out his Coalition colleagues in the name of saving himself, and he's fed the idea to the media looking for more Liberal rats. You can smell the fear that's driving this. The Liberal primary vote recently slumped to a record low of 17.5 per cent according to Roy Morgan, 18 per cent in Newspoll.  Meanwhile, One Nation has just raked in $1.5million for its 'Fire the Liar' campaign, with James Ashby openly bounty-hunting Labor ministers.  In an interview with The Australian, Angus Taylor's numbers man floated a very desperate and entirely self-serving idea: the Liberal Party and One Nation should sit down and carve up the electoral map so they do not 'cannibalise' each other The old certainties of Coalition dominance on the right are dead, buried and cremated, and Pasin's argument tries to ignore the central reality of that shift: One Nation doesn't need this deal nearly as much as the Liberal Party does. Under preferential voting, the party with the lower primary vote is the one with the problem.  If the Liberal vote collapses and One Nation surges, as the polls currently indicate, the Liberals can't simply assume One Nation exists to deliver them preferences after finishing third. In many contests, that sequence would be reversed.  The Liberals would be eliminated first, and that's likely to include a fair share of MPs hoping to keep their jobs. Why would Hanson sign a non-compete clause with a party she looks like overtaking? Unless it is heavily written up in her favour, which isn't Pasin's cunning plan. Why would she give Liberal and National incumbents a clear run at exactly the moment their voters are looking for an alternative? She shouldn't and surely won't. Simply put, Hanson isn't as stupid as Pasin hopes that she is. His ridiculous proposal assumes the Liberals are still the senior partner and One Nation is merely an unruly auxiliary force that needs to be managed.  But insurgent parties do not build power by politely avoiding the seats where their message is strongest. Pasin even provided a helpful example of how this cartel would operate: the Liberals could support One Nation in the Labor held seat of Spence, provided One Nation leaves the Liberals alone in Grey, which it currently holds A formal pact would likely be a disaster for Hanson, even if it's designed in her favour. Her appeal rests on being outside the major party cartel.  Becoming a tactical subcontractor to Taylor and Pasin would turn One Nation from an anti-establishment movement into an establishment bargaining chip. It also hands Albo a free kick. He is already trying to brand the Opposition as a 'Liberal One Nation Party'. Pasin has just handed him the press release. There is also something faintly absurd about the managerial arrogance of the whole idea.  Who, exactly, gets to decide which party is 'more appropriate' for which electorate? Pasin? New Liberal President Tony Abbott? Taylor perhaps, if he has any clout left?  The minute such a deal is even attempted, it becomes a leaky, resentful mess. How will branch members feel, from either party walking away from contesting seats in their areas?  And voters don't want their anger tidied up into a self-serving spreadsheet designed by the great Pasin. They would see it for what it is, a grubby backroom carve-up. The smarter play for Hanson is obvious. Run everywhere she can, force Liberals and Nationals to defend their woeful records, make them compete for voters they assumed they owned.  Then, if the Liberals want One Nation preferences, let them ask for them from a position of weakness. Confident major parties don't beg insurgents for non-compete arrangements, and they don't admit publicly that their greatest fear is being cannibalised by a party they once dismissed as fringe dwellers. Pasin's idea is a terrible bargain for One Nation, a deadly deal for stabbed-in-the-back Nationals, and a humiliating admission of Liberal weakness. It's a rescue plan written by the very people who need rescuing.  Perhaps worst of all, it's hard to believe that someone like Pasin wouldn't have run his hare-brained idea past the likes of Taylor or Abbott before announcing it to the media.  If that's the case, no wonder these strategic geniuses are in the mess they're in right now. No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? 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