The Iran Deal Could Be The Real Deal, But Could Be Fragile

BusinessEnergyThe Iran Deal Could Be The Real Deal, But Could Be FragileByMichael Lynch,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I analyze petroleum economics and energy policy.Follow AuthorJun 12, 2026, 07:32am EDTUNITED STATES - APRIL 6: President Donald Trump mimics firing a gun during a news conference in the White House briefing room about the war in Iran on Monday, April 6, 2026. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesAfter repeatedly claiming that a peace deal or at least a more comprehensive ceasefire was imminent only to find that Iran disagreed, President Trump may have actually reached an agreement that will allow the Straits of Hormuz to be reopened. Oil prices have already plummeted (again) in anticipation of resumed flows and many are hopeful that will prove lasting, reducing gasoline and fertilizer prices and helping to moderate inflation.At this writing (Friday 8 a.m.), the details remain murky and confirmation from Iran is less than clear. Part of the problem is that both sides have discussed red lines, or terms that they consider essential to any agreement and beyond compromise, and it’s unclear if those have been addressed, but they might now be willing to compromise on them.Reopening the Straits will allow trapped tankers to resume travel and inventories to begin rebuilding, although how quickly production can be restored and how much demand will rebound are open questions. I have argued previously that concerns that oil fields will take months to reach pre-war production appear exaggerated, given past performance, but there will definitely be some delays. On the other hand, full storage tanks in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere will make up the difference, at least for a few weeks. The main point for markets is that traders’ expectations will drive prices lower (as they have repeatedly in response to other claims of an imminent deal), even if not all the way to...