The data that proves Reform voters aren't afraid of losing to Andy Burnham if he takes over as PM

New polling has suggested Reform supporters are willing for the party to take on Andy Burnham at a General Election, should he become Labour leader.

The Greater Manchester mayor is standing in the upcoming Makerfield by-election, with polls suggesting a close contest between Labour and Robert Kenyon from Reform UK.

Westminster insiders are expecting Mr Burnham to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the party leadership, should he emerge victorious, with speculation he could call a snap election to capitalise on the polling boost.

However, newly released data from Lord Ashcroft polls suggests Reform voters aren't afraid of losing the Makerfield by-election.

When asked "If Keir Starmer is replaced as Labour leader and Prime Minister in the next few months, should the new leader call a General Election?", 87 per cent of Reform voters said Yes, compared to just six per cent who said No, with seven per cent saying they were unsure.

In comparison, just 15 per cent of Labour thought the new party leader should call a general election, should Sir Keir be booted from Downing Street, with 74 per cent against it.

Meanwhile, 69 per cent of Conservative voters, 36 per cent of Green Party voters and 33 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters all would back a snap election if Sir Keir is replaced.

According to the poll, 43 per cent of Scottish National Party (SNP) voters and 30 per cent of Plaid Cymru votes would also back an early election.

However, the polling suggested voters as a whole would prefer Andy Burnham to be Prime Minister over Nigel Farage.

Participants were asked "Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?" between Mr Burnham, Mr Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

When posed with those four names, 32 per cent said the Greater Manchester Mayor, compared to 19 per cent for Mrs Badenoch and 17 per cent for the Reform leader. However, 32 per cent they did not know.

Meanwhile, when asked "Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister?" directly between Sir Keir and Mr Farage, 45 per cent said the Labour ministers compared to 27 per cent saying the Reform leader, with 28 per cent saying they did not know.

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On top of this, 44 per cent of participants also mostly believed that Labour would carry on as they were, even if Sir Keir was replaced as leader.

According to the poll, 54 per cent of Reform voters, 49 per cent of Conservative voters, 36 per cent of Labour voters, 46 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters and 42 per cent of Green Party voters said the government would continue pretty much as it is if Sir Keir was removed.

Overall, 21 per cent of voters thought Labour would change for the better if Sir Keir was replaced, compared to 13 per cent who thought it would get worse.

Breaking it down, Plaid supporters were the most likely to think Labour would get better if Sir Keir was replaced (37 per cent), with Reform the most likely to think it would get worse (27 per cent).

Commenting on his findings, Lord Ashcroft said: "The electors of Makerfield find themselves in an unusual position. Those who want to oust the PM and bring down the Labour Government in its current form will have to vote… Labour.

"Any who think Starmer is unfairly maligned, is doing a reasonable job in impossible circumstances and deserves more than two years in office after a decade and a half of the Tories (and such people exist in greater numbers than you might think) would be best advised to vote for Reform UK.

"It is, as the philosopher said, a funny old world."