The bitter rivalry between Reform and Restore just got even more intense

Parties vying to win the Makerfield by-election are locked in a war of words over how much support the far-right party, Restore Britain, can claim.

Only one early constituency-wide poll has been released, which showed support for Restore at seven per cent. But a senior Restore source told The i Paper that based on what the party’s supporters are hearing, the number is much higher.

“We think the polling is closer to 20 per cent because of the canvassing returns every day,” the source said, adding that the party is planning a day of campaigning on 13 June when it hopes 1,000 supporters will turn up to campaign.

Rupert Lowe founded the Restore umbrella and, under the ultra-local brand Great Yarmouth First, won nine county council seats in Norfolk last month.

Lowe and his supporters rail against what he calls the “relentless creep of radical Islam”. Restore wants the mass deportation of “millions” of illegal migrants, to abolish the asylum system and remove benefits from every foreign national.

But a senior Reform UK source scoffed at the idea Lowe could poll that high. “We’re going to get a big score. Whether it’s big enough is a different question, because I think it will just completely come down to a two-horse race. If [Greater Manchester Mayor Andy] Burnham mops up the Green [Party of England and Wales] vote, he’ll win. If he doesn’t get the Green vote, it’ll be spin-a-coin.

“Long term, no, we’re not worried by Restore. In this by-election, [support for Restore] might nibble in 3 per cent or 3.5 per cent, but long term, everything he [Lowe] has done has ended in disaster.”

A Labour source working on the Makerfield campaign for Burnham said anecdotal evidence suggested Restore were enjoying somewhere between 10 and 13 per cent in the constituency, near Wigan. Labour strategists hope for a split in the right-wing vote to usher in the Mayor of Greater Manchester.

Scarlett Maguire, founder of Merlin Strategies, said Restore’s surge was having an effect on Reform’s campaign strategy. “Even if Reform are saying Restore is only on 3 per cent I don’t think this is reflected in their behaviour the last couple of days. The Nowak case and Farage’s reaction seem to show that they are spooked by how well Restore is doing,” she told The i Paper.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Nigel Farage was “exploiting” the murder of teenager Henry Nowak for political gain, a day after the Reform leader urged the public to respond to the case with “rage” and demonstrators clashed with police.

The case has become a flashpoint because the killer, 23-year-old Vickrum Digwa, convinced police in the immediate aftermath of the attack that Nowak, a white student, had racially abused him. Body cam footage showed Nowak telling police “I can’t breathe” but he was initially handcuffed by officers, with one telling him they didn’t believe he had been stabbed. He died at the scene. The judge said Nowak had not used racist language.

Farage raised the case at Prime Minister’s Questions, criticising “two-tier policing” to cries of “shame” from other MPs.

In his response, Starmer criticised the Reform leader for appearing to ignore the Nowak family’s appeal for calm, saying: “I’m really shocked that he pretends to have respect for Henry’s family and then acts in this way.”

“The biggest question mark over this by-election is how well Restore will do,” Maguire said.

“In our focus groups, we’ve found name recognition for Restore was pretty low, but they do have some presence in the area. However, they are susceptible to a bit of squeeze because Reform can say if you vote Restore, you will split our vote and get Burnham.

“Many of the Restore voters we have spoken to say they are considering the party because they are worried Reform will be too much like establishment politicians and won’t be able to deliver what they say,” she said.

Maguire added: “The problem parties have when there isn’t much polling in a constituency is that using canvassing runs a risk of bias towards the party who does them and then they can overestimate the support they are getting.”

After a spectacular falling out with Farage last year and a subsequent briefing war, Lowe, a former Reform MP, kicked off his own political movement, aided by an endorsement from X billionaire Elon Musk after Farage declined the support of far-right agitator Tommy Robinson.

Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, was in Southampton on Tuesday evening in protests near Digwa’s family home. Police said 11 officers were injured in clashes.