TCMB Başkanı Karahan: Savaş, dezenflasyon sürecini olumsuz etkilese de kararlılığımızı değiştirmiyor

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dezenflasyon sürecini olumsuz etkilese de kararlılığımızı değiştirmiyor." dedi.Mert Davut, Serhat Tutak05 Mayıs 2026•Güncelleme: 05 Mayıs 2026Fotoğraflar: Ömer Taha Çetin / AATBMMTürkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Başkanı Fatih Karahan, TBMM Plan ve Bütçe Komisyonuna, TCMB Kanunu gereğince Bankanın faaliyetlerine ilişkin sunum yaptı. Geçen aylarda jeopolitik gelişmelerin belirleyici olduğuna dikkati çeken Karahan, başta enerji ve ulaştırma hizmet fiyatlarında olmak üzere, savaşın etkilerinin hissedildiğini söyledi. Fatih Karahan, şubat sonunda başlayan ABD/İsrail ile İran arasındaki savaşın enerji fiyatlarını kesin şekilde artırdığını, Hürmüz Boğazı'nın kapatılmasının küresel enerji arzı açısından risk oluşturduğunu belirterek "Savaş, dezenflasyon sürecini olumsuz etkilese de kararlılığımızı değiştirmiyor. Önümüzdeki dönemde de tüm para politikası araçlarını temel amacımız olan fiyat istikrarı doğrultusunda kullanmaya devam edeceğiz." diye konuştu. Petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklığın son dönemde azalsa da halen tarihsel ortalamasının üzerinde olduğunu dile getiren Karahan, endüstriyel metal ve tarımsal emtialar kaynaklı olarak enerji dışı fiyatların da arttığını ifade etti. TCMB Başkanı Karahan, enerji fiyatlarına bağlı olarak manşet enflasyonun küresel ölçekte yükseldiğine, bu duruma küresel anlamda para politikalarının ilk tepkisinin sınırlı olduğuna işaret ederek "Gelişmiş ülkelerde daha önce beklenen faiz indirimlerinin ötelendiğini görüyoruz. ABD Merkez Bankasının (Fed) yıl boyunca politika faizini değiştirmeyeceği fiyatlanırken Avrupa Merkez Bankasının (ECB) ise yılın ikinci yarısında politika faizini artırması bekleniyor. Bundan sonraki süreçte savaşın gelişimini enerji nakliyatındaki aksamaların boyutu ve süresi belirleyici olacak." değerlendirmelerinde bulundu. Fatih Karahan, sıkı para politikalarının hedeflenen sonucu olarak, talep kompozisyonunda dengeli seyrin devam ettiğini bildirerek 2025'te tüketimin büyümeye katkısının 2023'e kıyasla belirgin olarak gerilediğini, yatırımların katkısının ise devam ettiğini söyledi. Türkiye'nin ekonomik göstergelerine ilişkin bilgi veren Karahan, "Küresel ticarette jeopolitik koşullardaki zorluklara rağmen geçen ay ihracatta artış, ithalatta ise azalış gerçekleşti. Yüksek fiyatlar nedeniyle enerji ithalatının artmasına karşın, altın ve enerji hariç ithalatta düşüş gözlendi. Böylelikle dış ticaret açığı nisan ayında ilk çeyreğe kıyasla geriledi." ifadelerini kullandı. TCMB Başkanı Karahan, cari açığın yılın ilk çeyreğinde, dış ticaret ve hizmetler dengesindeki görünüme bağlı olarak arttığını, milli gelire oran olarak tarihsel ortalamaların altında kalmayı sürdürdüğünü söyledi. Savaşın enerji fiyatlarında tetiklediği hızlı yükselişin, mart ayındaki enerji ithalatında belirgin artışa neden olduğunu aktaran Karahan, bir önceki çeyreğe göre gerileyen altın ithalatının cari dengeye pozitif katkı verdiğine dikkati çekti. Fatih Karahan, korumacı önlemlerin halihazırda küresel talep üzerinde oluşturduğu aşağı yönlü risklere, jeopolitik riskler ve enerji fiyatlarındaki artışın faaliyeti sınırlayıcı ikincil etkileri kaynaklı riskler de eklendiğini belirterek, "Bu gelişmeler yılın geri kalanında dış ticaret açığı üzerinde yukarı yönlü baskıyı artırıyor. 2026'da cari açığın milli gelire oranının uzun dönem ortalamasının altında gerçekleşeceğini öngörüyoruz. Bununla birlikte jeopolitik gelişmelerin seyri her iki yönde de belirsizlik içeriyor." diye konuştu. Nisan itibarıyla yıllık tüketici enflasyonun yüzde 32,4 seviyesinde gerçekleştiğini hatırlatan Karahan, Mayıs 2024'te ulaşılan zirveyle kıyaslandığında, enflasyonda belirgin bir düşüş yaşandığını ancak enflasyonun yüksek seyrini koruduğunu ifade etti. TCMB Başkanı Karahan, enflasyonun yakın dönemdeki seyrini değerlendirmek için ana eğilim göstergelerine başvurduklarına dikkati çekerek sözlerini şöyle sürdürdü: "Yıllık enflasyon, geçmiş dönem artışları bünyesinde barındırdığından, yakın dönem görünümü yeterince yansıtmayabiliyor. Göstergelerin son 3 aylık ortalamaları enflasyonun ana eğiliminde bir miktar yükselişe işaret ediyor. Nitekim yılın ilk 4 ayındaki fiyat artışlarına baktığımızda, geçen yıla kıyasla enflasyonun temel mal ve hizmet gibi çekirdek gruplarda yavaşladığını, ancak gıda ve enerjide yükseldiğini görüyoruz." Nisan ayı tüketici enflasyonunun seyrinde enerji, gıda ve giyim fiyatlarının öne çıktığını dile getiren Karahan, akaryakıt fiyat gelişmeleri etkisiyle ulaştırma hizmetlerinde fiyat artışlarının güçlü seyretmeye devam ettiğini söyledi. TCMB Başkanı Fatih Karahan, martta görece ılımlı seyreden gıda fiyatlarının nisanda tekrar hızlandığını belirterek temel mal enflasyonu tarafında ise yükselen giyim grubu fiyatlarının öne çıktığını aktardı. Ayrıca petrol fiyatlarındaki artışın yansımasıyla petrokimya ürünleriyle bağlantısı güçlü olan kalemlerde de fiyat artışları olduğunu ifade eden Karahan, şu değerlendirmelerde bulundu: "Şubat 2026'nın sonunda Orta Doğu'da başlayan gerilim, negatif arz şoklarına yol açarak enflasyonist baskıları artırdı. Yurt içi enerji fiyatları, petrol ve doğal gaz fiyatları öncülüğünde hızlandı. Yavaşlama eğiliminde olan enerji yıllık enflasyonu son iki ayda 19 puan artış gösterdi. Tetiklenen maliyet artışları sonucunda elektrik ve doğal gaz tarifelerinde güncellemeye gidildi. Özellikle doğal gazda meskenler için fazla tüketim yapan hanelerin daha yüksek ödediği kademeli fiyat uygulamasına geçilmesiyle fiyat artışı belirgin oldu." Karahan, ham petrol fiyatlarındaki artışların tüketici fiyatlarına olan etkisini sınırlamak üzere akaryakıt ürünlerinde eşel mobil sisteminin devreye alındığını hatırlatarak bu sistemin petrol fiyatlarındaki artışların enflasyona yansımasını önemli ölçüde sınırladığını kaydetti. Hizmet enflasyonuna ilişkin değerlendirmelerde bulunan Karahan, "2025'te hizmet enflasyonunun yüksek seyrinde kira ve eğitim hizmetleri önemli oldu. Bu iki kalemde de geçmiş enflasyona endeksleme eğiliminin rolü yüksek. Son bir yıllık dönemde her iki kalemde de enflasyonda önemli düşüşler yaşandığının altını çizmek gerekir. Bu durum, hizmetlerde süregelen ataletin güç kaybetmeye başladığını haber veriyor." dedi. Fatih Karahan, kira ve eğitim dışında kalan hizmet kalemlerinde ise tüketici enflasyonuna daha yakınsamış bir resmin göze çarptığına dikkati çekerek bu bağlamda, hizmet enflasyonu üzerinde gelecek dönemde etkili olabilecek bazı faktörlere değindi. Kira tarafında, gerek mevsim etkilerinden arındırılmış yakın dönem kira verileri gerekse yeni kiracı kira endeksinin, enflasyonda eğilimin aşağı yönlü olduğuna işaret ettiğini belirten Karahan, eğitim tarafında da fiyat ayarlamalarına dair düzenlemelerde, geçmiş 24 ayın enflasyonu yerine 12 ayın etkisini yansıtacak şekilde değişikliğe gidilmesini önemli bulduklarını vurguladı. TCMB Başkanı Karahan, bir önceki sunum dönemiyle kıyaslandığına, enflasyon beklentilerinin arzu ettikleri ölçüde gerilemediğini gördüklerini ifade ederek "Beklentiler, halen enflasyon tahminlerimizin üzerinde seyrediyor. Yılın ilk aylarında gıda fiyatları yüksek seyretti. Sonraki dönemde ise Orta Doğu'daki gelişmeler enflasyon görünümü üzerinde belirsizliğe yol açtı. Buna istinaden enflasyon beklentilerinde bozulma gördük. Bu dönemde jeopolitik gelişmelerin olası ikincil etkileri önem taşımakta. Gerilimin ne kadar süreceği enflasyon görünümü açısından kritik bir risk unsuru." değerlendirmesini yaptı. Fatih Karahan, şubat sonunda Orta Doğu'da başlayan gerilim kaynaklı artan belirsizliklerin, ham petrol, doğal gaz ve emtia fiyatlarında yüksek oynaklıklara ve artışa neden olduğunu dile getirerek söz konusu unsurların enflasyon görünümü üzerinde oluşturabileceği riskleri sınırlamak amacıyla zamanlı bir şekilde bazı tedbirler aldıklarını anlattı. TL mevduat, kredi büyümesi ve likidite yönetimi odaklı makroihtiyati tedbirleri sıkı para politikası duruşlarını desteklemek üzere uygulamaya devam ettiklerine işaret eden Karahan, "TL mevduat payını artırmayı hedefleyen düzenlemeleri finansal koşullara göre revize ederek uyguluyoruz. KKM hesaplarının açılması ve yenilenmesi uygulamasını 2025'te sonlandırmıştık. Bu hesaplarda çok sınırlı bir bakiye kaldı. Kredi büyümesindeki dalgalanmaları yönetmek için büyüme sınırlarını kullanıyoruz. Son dönem jeopolitik gelişmeler sonrasında olduğu gibi aktif likidite yönetimi politikamız ile parasal aktarım mekanizmasını güçlendiriyoruz." dedi. TCMB Başkanı Karahan, 2025'in ikinci yarısından itibaren politika faizinde yapılan indirimlerin, şubat sonundaki jeopolitik gelişmelere kadar olan dönemde mevduat ve kredi fiyatlamalarına beklentileri ölçüsünde yansıdığını belirtti. Geçen yıldan itibaren kıymetli maden fiyatlarındaki hızlı yükseliş ve artan jeopolitik riskler sonucunda TL payının zaman zaman dalgalanmakla birlikte, sıkı para politikası duruşunun yurt içi yerleşiklerin TL mevduat tercihinin korunmasında rol oynadığına dikkati çeken Karahan, "Nitekim TL mevduatın payı yüzde 59 ile tarihsel ortalamasına yakın seviyede kalmaya devam ediyor. Yatırım fonlarını da dahil ettiğimizde bu görünüm değişmiyor." diye konuştu. Yaşanan jeopolitik gelişmeler sırasında hane halkında döviz talebinin oluşmadığını ifade eden Fatih Karahan, "Mart ayının son haftasında altın fiyatlarında görülen hızlı gerileme, hane halkının altın talebinde bir yükselişe yol açtı. Ancak takip eden dönemde altın fiyatlarının daha dengeli bir patikaya oturmasıyla bu talebin sona erdiğini görüyoruz. Döviz tarafında ise satış eğilimi devam ediyor." değerlendirmelerinde bulundu. TCMB Başkanı Karahan, savaş döneminde artış kaydeden risk ve oynaklık göstergelerinde ateşkes görüşmeleri sonrasında gerileme yaşandığına işaret ederek şunları kaydetti: "Jeopolitik gelişmeler sonucu 27 Mart'ta 155 milyar dolara gerileyen brüt rezervler, takip eden dönemde 16 milyar dolar artış göstererek 24 Nisan'da 171 milyar dolara ulaştı. Swap hariç net rezervler ise 17 milyar dolar artışla 36 milyar dolara yükseldi. Jeopolitik gelişmelerin de neden olduğu arz şokları dezenflasyon sürecini olumsuz etkiliyor. Ancak bu durum fiyat istikrarına ulaşma yolundaki kararlılığımızı değiştirmeyecek. Yaşanan gelişmelerin orta vadeli enflasyon görünümü üzerindeki yansımaları, para politikası duruşumuzla şekillenecek. Bu bağlamda, fiyat istikrarı sağlanana kadar sıkı para politikası duruşunu sürdüreceğimizi belirtmek isterim. Çünkü unutmamalıyız ki fiyat istikrarı, sürdürülebilir büyüme ve toplumsal refah artışı için ön koşuldur." Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.