Talarico Sharply Slips In Betting Odds Against Paxton As Texas Senate Race Turns Heated

BreakingBusinessTalarico Sharply Slips In Betting Odds Against Paxton As Texas Senate Race Turns HeatedByAntonio Pequeño IV,Forbes Staff. Pequeño is a breaking news reporter who covers tech and more.Follow AuthorMay 28, 2026, 08:02pm EDTToplineTexas state Rep. James Talarico’s odds of winning the Texas Senate race began falling sharply this week, a notable turnaround from the middle of May, when the Democratic nominee was briefly favored to win the seat after Texas Attorney General and Republican nominee Ken Paxton received an endorsement from President Donald Trump.Democratic Senate Candidate James Talarico waves to people during a meet-and-greet after a rally at Rich's Houston on May 27, 2026 in Houston, Texas.Photo by Danielle Villasana/Getty ImagesKey FactsTalarico’s odds of winning the Texas Senate race dropped below 40% at times Thursday, Kalshi showed, while Paxton’s jumped to 60%.The drop marks a quick slide for Talarico, who briefly topped 50% on May 19, when Trump endorsed Paxton, who later won the Republican primary runoff over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.Talarico’s odds were around 46% earlier this week, Kalshi showed, while his slip is even more start on competitor Polymarket, which showed Talarico’s odds at 47% as recently as Wednesday afternoon.Despite the fall, Talarico’s odds on Kalshi are about five percentage points higher than immediately after he won the Democratic primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, with 53.1% of the vote.Nearly $4 million worth of predictions have been made on Kalshi for the Texas Senate race as of Thursday evening. if (!window.cnxel) { window.cnxel = {}; window.cnxel.cmd = []; var iframe = document.createElement('iframe'); iframe.style.display = 'none'; iframe.onload = function() { var iframeDoc = iframe.contentWindow.document; var script = iframeDoc.createElement('script'); script.src = '//cd.elements.video/player.js?cid=62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a'; script.setAttribute('defer', '1'); script...