Stormy April ahead, lower than normal peak temperatures in India this summer: IMD

E-PaperSubscribeSubscribeEnjoy unlimited accessSubscribe Now! Get features like New Delhi: Day temperatures this summer (April-June) will likely be below normal, or normal across most parts of India, the India Meteorological Department said in its updated forecast on Tuesday. It warned that many parts of the country could also see intense thunderstorms in April. People are seen under cloud-laden skies during a pleasant evening at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, India. (Raj K Raj/HT)While the milder weather should provide some respite to customers, and also lower power demand in the midst of an energy crisis brought about by the war in West Asia, a wet April could damage standing ready-for-harvest crops, some of which have already been impacted by western disturbances in the second half of March. ALSO READ | More rain for Delhi this week, IMD warns of thunderstorms across North India In what could further impact the farm sector, the agency predicted an 80% likelihood of an El Nino developing in the second half on monsoon — which could sap the rainy season. In its forecast, IMD said many parts of eastern and the North East, and also the eastern parts of Central India, and the peninsular region adjoining these could, however, see hotter days. IMD also added that night temperatures will likely be above normal over most parts of the country except some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely till June. Below normal day temperatures and high night temperatures are expected mainly due to likely higher rainfall, thunderstorm activity and cloudy nights and days. Cloud cover makes nights warmer by trapping heat radiating from the Earth’s surface. The weather office has predicted above normal rain , at 112% of the long period average, in April; the LPA, based on average rain from 1971-2020 is 39.2 mm. “Intense and widespread thunderstorm activity is likely in different parts of April. People should be cautious especially those working outdoors. Three western disturbances are expected to impact until April 9 and they will travel eastwards causing thunderstorm activity. There are easterly waves over peninsular region also which cause thunderstorm activity,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD. “This updated forecast is not completely different from the one we issued in March but now we can say more heat wave days are likely in May and June compared to April,” Mohapatra added. During April, above-normal heatwave days are likely over many parts of coastal areas of Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka, IMD said. At present, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, IMD said. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely to continue till June. Thereafter, the probability of development of El Niño conditions increases gradually. There is a 62% chance of El Nino emerging in June-July-August period and there is an 80% chance of El Nino persisting in August-September-October. El Niño years typically bring weak monsoons and harsh summers to India. The monsoon is primarily driven by the intense heating of land compared to the sea during summer. When asked whether normal to below normal temperatures this summer will impact the monsoon, Mohapatra said factors other than land heating also have an important role to play. IMD will issue the initial monsoon forecast around mid April, he added. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest MMCFS forecast suggests that these neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist during the April to June season and thereafter. For east and northeast India, IMD has warned of significant heat stress. I write on the environment and climate crisis and I believe these are the most important stories of our times.