SpaceX’s AI Wing Casts Cloud Over Future Earnings, Leading Experts Say

BusinessAerospace & DefenseSpaceX’s AI Wing Casts Cloud Over Future Earnings, Leading Experts SayByKevin Holden Platt,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Kevin Holden Platt writes on space defense, SpaceX, ISS, Space War I Follow AuthorJun 08, 2026, 09:14pm EDTWhile SpaceX is now a world superpower in crafting reusable rockets, its high-priced takeover of the AI start-up xAI should be factored into calculating the value of the combined outfit and its IPO share price (Photo by CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty ImagesWhile SpaceX is now a world superpower in crafting reusable rockets, its high-priced takeover of the artificial intelligence start-up xAI, with its speculative future, should be factored into calculating the value of the combined outfit and its IPO share price, say leading aerospace equity analysts across North America. As SpaceX counts down toward the launch of its initial public offering of shares, just after acquiring xAI in an astonishing $250 billion transaction, these space economics experts say potential investors should break down the post-merger outfit into its component parts to project its future earnings.SpaceX the rocket maker leads the globe in lofting boosters into orbit, they say, and could ignite the next phase of the rocket revolution with its prototype Starship super-capsule, which is coursing through a series of spectacular flight tests.But the ultimate trajectory of its new AI division is “highly uncertain,” and could even lead to more than $80 billion in “capital destruction,” say space securities researchers at the international firm Morningstar.“The newly acquired AI business,” Morningstar analysts Nicolas Owens and Suryansh Sharma say in a fascinating research note, “poses a material threat of value destruction to the company.”MORE FOR YOUSince Elon Musk took over Twitter, and rebranded it as X, the messaging platform has seen its profits nosedive as many advertiser...