Small market MLB teams are outperforming big payrolls, undermining owners' push to cancel 2027 season
We're nearly a month into the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, and already there have been some major surprises, outstanding performances, and, most importantly, the complete and total dismantling of the "poor" small market owner trope.
And hopefully it provides some positive momentum toward the ridiculous push from those owners and supportive fans to cancel the 2027 season in order to increase franchise values.
In just the first few weeks of the season, we've seen several high-profile contract extensions for young prospects in small markets, including one that set a record for the largest monetary guarantee ever given out to a player who'd yet to play in the big leagues.
Then, the San Diego Padres, who play in one of the smallest markets in the league, sold for an astonishing $3.9 billion to the owner of Chelsea Football Club. That sale price exceeded the price that Steve Cohen paid for the New York Mets just five and a half years ago by $1.4 billion. Put simply, there is no longer any reasonable debate: the business of baseball is booming.
But that's the financial side, which is just one part of the "concern." The other? The supposed problem with competitive balance in baseball. Well, it's early, but the start to the season has already demonstrated why those "issues" have been wildly overstated and weaponized by owners pushing for a salary cap. And those same New York Mets have shown how absurd the hand-wringing has become.
That hand-wringing, that small market teams can't possibly compete with the large payrolls of big market teams, fundamentally misunderstands the gaps between baseball teams. Yes, there are significant advantages to having more money to spend on players. But that money must be spent wisely in order for it to matter. The Mets might be the perfect example of how money can't fix everything.
The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the league in payroll, and caused mass outrage in the offseason by signing Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz. Yes, the Dodgers are in first place...by half a game over the small market Padres. Diaz gave up three runs without getting an out on Sunday afternoon, pushing his ERA to over 10, and Kyle Tucker has been the 78th most valuable hitter in baseball thus far, behind Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman. The Dodgers have still jumped out to a great start, but it's mostly been due to exceptional performances from the bottom of the lineup, players like Andy Pages, Dalton Rushing, and Miguel Rojas.
The Mets, who are a close second to LA with a $370 million payroll and over $500 million due in payments this year thanks to the luxury tax, have now lost 11 straight games after blowing a ninth inning lead to the Cubs on Sunday. They're tied for the worst record in baseball, have scored the second fewest runs in the league, and have now fallen a whopping eight games out of first place in the National League East already.
The Mets are also 43-60 since late June 2025, one of the worst records in baseball over that timeframe. Again, this a team that will have spent nearly a billion dollars on payroll over the last two years. They missed the playoffs in 2025, and the poor start has dropped their postseason odds to just 41% this year.
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Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays, who made the 2025 World Series and have the fourth highest payroll in baseball at roughly $290 million, are currently in last place in the American League East at 8-13. They've been outscored by 26 runs already.
What about the Philadelphia Phillies, always one of baseball's biggest spending teams? They rank fifth in team payroll at $285 million, with a $320 million luxury tax payroll. They're in fourth place in the NL East at 8-13, and their -38 run differential is quite literally the worst in Major League Baseball.
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The Houston Astros rank seventh in payroll at nearly $240 million. They're in last place in the American League West, having allowed the most runs of any team in the sport. Even worse than the Rockies, who play their home games at Coors Field.
What about the small market "poor" teams?
Well, the Cincinnati Reds are in first place in the NL Central at 14-8 ahead of the big market Cubs, who've outspent them by over $100 million. The Athletics are tied for first in the AL West. The Cleveland Guardians are once again defying the run differential gods and sit in first place in the AL Central, despite a payroll well under $100 million. The Tampa Bay Rays are in second in the AL East, just a half game back. Miami, the team with the lowest payroll in baseball, roughly $300 million behind the Mets, sit in second and have outscored the Mets' offense by 28 runs already.
Does this mean the standings will finish this way? No, not necessarily. The Blue Jays and Astros, for example, have suffered through a rash of pitching injuries and the Mets are missing Juan Soto. But therein lies the point. Injuries, underperformance, and expensive veterans declining as they age can easily derail a season for the richer teams. Yes, the Dodgers have excelled with huge payrolls, but they've done it by building up depth through minor league development and targeted small dollar value signings. Mookie Betts is out? Rojas, Alex Freeland, or Hyesong Kim can pick up the slack. Will Smith needs more time off? Dalton Rushing, a former top-35 prospect is the backup. As the extensions and franchise sales have show, there's plenty of money floating around baseball. And as the standings thus far bear out, higher payrolls don't always correlate to success. MLB already has competitive balance. We don't need to cancel an entire season, which despite their arguments, would be exclusively to enrich the league's owners, to achieve it.
