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2026•Güncelleme: 08 Mayıs 2026İstanbulSiyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları Vakfında (SETA) savunma araştırmacısı olan Sibel Düz, SIPRI raporu çerçevesinde küresel savunma harcamalarındaki yükselişin nedenlerini ve Türkiye’nin savunma sanayisindeki stratejik konumunu AA Analiz için kaleme aldı. Stockholm merkezli Uluslararası Barış Araştırmaları Enstitüsünün (SIPRI) yayınladığı son araştırmaya göre, küresel askeri harcamalar 2025 yılında yüzde 2,9 artarak, 2 bin 887 milyar dolara ulaşmıştır. Bu artış, askeri harcamalarda 11 yıldır süren kesintisiz yükselişi teyit etmektedir. Dünya genelindeki askeri harcamaların yüzde 58’inin Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Çin, Rusya, Almanya ve Hindistan tarafından yapıldığı görülmektedir. Süregelen Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı, Avrupa ülkelerinin güvenlik kaygılarını perçinlemiş, yüzde 14 artışla 864 milyar dolara ulaşan Avrupa’nın askeri harcamaları rekor seviyelere ulaşmıştır. Öte yandan, 2025 yılında Lahey Zirvesi'nde kabul edilen çerçeve ve ittifak içi yük paylaşımı baskıları doğrultusunda NATO üyesi ülkelerin toplam harcamasının bin 581 milyar dolarla, küresel harcamaların yüzde 55'ine tekabül ettiği de tespit edilmiştir. Bu rakamlar yalnızca bütçe artışını değil, devletlerin güvenlik algısındaki yapısal kırılmayı da göstermektedir. Söz konusu artış eğiliminin arka planında pek çok bölgesel ve bireysel faktörden bahsedilebilir: Askeri modernizasyon çabaları, süregelen çatışmalar ve gerilimler, ülkelerin artan tehdit algısı, sistemik belirsizlikler ve siyasi muğlaklıklar, savaşın niteliğindeki değişim. Fakat en temel gerekçe olarak uluslararası sistemin daha çatışmacı ve belirsiz hale gelerek, mevcut güvenlik ortamının uzun vadeli kriz ve bölgesel çatışma ihtimalinin giderek somutlaştığı bir güvensizlik iklimine girmesi gösterilebilir. Bu durum, ülkeleri savunma mimarilerini güçlendirerek caydırıcılık kapasitelerini artırmaya, taarruzi kabiliyetlerini artırarak karşılıklı güvenlik ikilemini derinleştirmelerine ve nihayetinde uzun vadeli bir silahlanma döngüsüne sevk etmektedir. Stratejik, teknolojik ve ekonomik düzlemlerde de bu eğilimi doğru okumak gerekmektedir. Küresel aktörlerin güç rekabetleri savunma alanında da tesirini göstermekte, savunma planlamaları yapılırken sadece konvansiyonel yeteneklerin geliştirilmesi yeterli kalmamakta, bu da daha fazla bu alanda kaynak aktarımını elzem hale getirmektedir. Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı ile mühimmat stokları, hava savunma sistemleri, zırhlı birlik kapasiteleri ve savunma sanayisi kapasitesi yeniden stratejik öncelik haline gelmiş, Avrupa’yı gecikmiş bir restorasyona iterek savunma yatırımlarının artırılmasına neden olmuştur. Benzer bir etkiyi çatışma riskinin arttığı Hint-Pasifik ve hem savunma hem de bölgesel güç rekabetinin derinleştiği Orta Doğu’da da gözlemlemek mümkündür. Dahası modern savaşın teknoloji merkezli icrası ve mühimmat tüketim hızı, ülkeleri sürekli savaşa hazırlıklı olmaya zorlayarak stok yenileme, tedarik zinciri güvenliği ve ortak üretim hatlarının genişletilmesi gibi önlemleri almaya sevk etmektedir. Eğitim, bakım, yazılım güncellemeleri, mühimmat konfigürasyonları, veri altyapısı geliştirilmesi ve entegrasyon maliyetleri gibi platform tedarikine ek yükler ise savunma bütçelerini büyütmektedir. Öte yandan, artık nitelik ve niceliksel anlamda kapasite inşası yeterli olmamakta, mevcut kapasitenin hibrit tehditlere, sabotajlara, siber saldırılara ve dezenformasyon faaliyetlerine dayanıklı kılınması adına ifa edilen kritik altyapı, siber güvenlik ve savunma ile bağlantılı yatırımların artması da bütçelerin kapsamını genişletmektedir. Ancak savunma harcamalarındaki artışın stratejik anlamı, yalnızca harcanan miktarla değil, bu kaynağın hangi kabiliyetlere yöneldiğiyle belirlenmektedir. Savunmaya ayrılan bütçelerin büyüklüğünden ziyade, kaynakların niteliksel olarak neye harcandığı da bu nedenle bir diğer önemli parametredir. Eğer devletler hava savunmasına, mühimmat üretimine, lojistiğe, bakım-onarıma, yedek parça kapasitesine, siber dayanıklılığa ve kritik altyapı korumasına yatırım yapıyorsa, bu daha çok savunmacı caydırıcılık üretmektedir. Fakat kaynaklar uzun menzilli taarruz kapasitesine, ani baskın gücüne, ileri üslenmeye ve stratejik füze modernizasyonuna aktarılıyorsa, bu karşılıklı tehdit algısını besleyerek rakipler açısından çatışma riskini artırmaktadır. Öte yandan, SIPRI verileri küresel savunma harcamalarının sivil ekonomiye etkileri ve sosyo-ekonomik getirisi üzerine önemli bir veriyi de aktarmaktadır. Askeri harcamaların dünyanın Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYH) içindeki payının 2024’te yüzde 2,4 iken 2025’te yüzde 2,5 olduğu, askeri harcamaların, 2025’te dünya genelinde kamu harcamalarının ortalama yüzde 6,9’una tekabül ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Askeri harcamaların artması ile mali alanı dar ülkelerde sosyal bütçelerin doğrudan baskı altına girdiği görülmektedir. Burada bütçenin büyüklüğü kadar kompozisyonuna da önem atfetmekte fayda vardır. Savunma bütçesi ithal silah alımı, personel gideri ve kısa vadeli stok takviyesi gibi tüketim odaklıysa sosyo-ekonomik getirisi sınırlı kalmaktadır. Buna karşılık yerli sanayi, Ar-Ge, bakım-onarım, mühimmat üretimi, yedek parça kapasitesi ve nitelikli istihdam yaratan üretken bir modelse ekonomi üzerinde daha olumlu etki doğurabilmektedir. Bu bağlamda Avrupa önümüzdeki dönemde, sosyal devlet modelinin savunma restorasyonu ile aynı anda finanse edilmesi hususunda önemli bir ikilemle karşı karşıya kalacaktır. Türkiye’nin savunma yatırımları ve bu hususta izlediği siyasa, bölgesel ölçekte askeri-politik bir etki yaratmaktadır. Ticari bir faaliyetin ötesine geçerek, savunma ihracatının askeri diplomasi, stratejik angajman ve nüfuz projeksiyonu aracına dönüştüğü söylenebilir. Türkiye’nin insansız sistemler, özellikle hava araçlarıyla yakaladığı ivme bunun en belirgin göstergesidir. Zira, Türkiye’nin 2015-2019 yılları arasındaki küresel silah ihracatındaki payı yüzde 0,8 iken, 2020-2024 yılları arasındaki payı yüzde 1,7’ye yükselmiştir. Türkiye’nin Afrika, Kafkasya, Orta Asya, Körfez ve Güneydoğu Asya’daki görünürlüğü önemli ölçüde artmıştır. Söz konusu coğrafyalarda Türkiye’nin askeri nüfuz elde etmesi, dış politika ortaklıklarını derinleştirmesi ve manevra alanı elde etmesi ile stratejik özerklik iddiasını güçlendiren bölgesel bir aktöre evrilmesi savunma ihracatını ülkenin bölgesel güç politikasının merkezi araçlarından biri haline getirmesiyle pekişmiştir. Nitekim, Afrika kıtasına yapılan savunma ihracatları ve askeri işbirlikleri, kıtada yer alan ülkelere NATO standartlarında yüksek teknolojiye erişim imkanı tanıdığı gibi, Batılı, Rus ve Çinli tedarik kanallarına alternatif bir üçüncü seçenek de sunmuştur. Bu vesileyle Türkiye, savunma ihracatı yaptığı ülkelerle uzun vadeli bir güvenlik bağı inşa etmekte, süreklilik arz eden bir askeri- teknik ilişki kurmakta, güvenlik tüketicisinden güvenlik sağlayıcı ve kapasite inşa edici bir ortağa evrilmektedir. Türkiye açısından bu tablo önemli bir güç çarpanı sunmaktadır. Ancak bu gücün kalıcı etki üretmesi, ihracat başarısının teknolojik derinlik, diplomatik denge ve sürdürülebilir sanayi kapasitesiyle desteklenmesine bağlıdır. Stratejik hedeflerle uyumlu biçimde üretebilmek, sürdürebilmek ve siyasi etkiye dönüştürebilmek stratejik önem arz etmektedir. [Sibel Düz, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları Vakfında (SETA) savunma araştırmacısıdır.] *Makalelerdeki fikirler yazarına aittir ve Anadolu Ajansının editoryal politikasını yansıtmayabilir. Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.