Shrinking Scotland! Population set to plummet as migration slows

By DAN BARKER FOR THE SCOTTISH DAILY MAIL Published: 19:40, 28 April 2026 | Updated: 19:40, 28 April 2026 Scotland's population is set to fall earlier than expected as migration drops from record highs, statisticians have said. Amid more deaths than births, the number of people moving to Scotland will push its population to a high of 5.56million in mid-2033, the National Records of Scotland said. But from then the number of people will fall, with statisticians projecting by mid-2049 there will be 5.47million. It is counter what they thought last year when they projected Scotland’s population would go up each year to reach 5.78m by mid-2047. And it is also the opposite with what is happening in the rest of the UK, with migration pushing up the population to 72.5million by mid-2054. The forecast sooner-than-expected fall in population will mean that while the UK’s total as a whole will grow by 4.5 per cent by mid-2049, the Scottish figure will drop by 1.3 per cent by then. Andrew White, the NRS’s head of population and migration statistics, said: ‘Our latest projections are lower than the last set of figures. This is mainly driven by migration falling from unusually high levels. ‘While we continue to project more people moving to Scotland than leaving, we now anticipate these levels to be too low to completely offset the gap between deaths and births. Scotland has had more deaths than births since 2015. ‘We see the number of older people continuing to rise by the number of children and young adults fall.’ Net migration surged recently, especially among those from abroad – but it has dropped. Scotland's population is set to fall earlier than expected, the opposite of what is happening in the rest of the UK In 2023 there were 63,500 people moving to Scotland from abroad, but just 13,900 from the rest of the UK. But in 2024 there were 42,600 moving from abroad, and around 13,800 from the rest of the UK. NRS statisticians forecast in 2049 there will be around 10,400 moving to Scotland from the rest of the UK and 11,500 from abroad. Over the next 25 years more people are expected to move to Scotland than leave, with net migration helping to keep population levels up. The demographics are changing too. By mid-2047, it has been projected, there will be 300,000 extra Scots aged 75 and over. During the same time the number if children is projected to fall by almost 166,000, and the number of young adults to drop by more than 157,000. It means the proportion of the population which is of working age is set to fall slightly, while the population of pension-aged people is expected to rise by about three per cent. Meanwhile, across the whole UK, the population is set to reach 71million by 2034. The Office for National Statistics has projected net migration would add 2.2million to the UK population in the decade to mid-2034. No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.