Seattle Mariners picked to beat Athletics behind Logan Gilbert's dominant road numbers this season
I won't waste a ton of words on this one, but I want to share a quick play that has nothing to do with this article. The Colorado Rockies are +330 tonight, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are -440. I'm going to take a shot on the Rockies — not a full unit, but a sprinkle.
The Dodgers shouldn't be thrown in a parlay, which is the natural instinct with heavy favorites. Too often in baseball, these big dogs cash, and I pick these spots every season. I will stay on the West Coast for a play between the Seattle Mariners and the Athletics.
The Mariners are underperforming. Through about a third of the games this season, the Mariners just aren't where people expect them to be. Maybe they are fine where they are at, considering no one in their division is exactly overperforming.
They are in probably the easiest division this season, so they can get hot and win this with relative ease. The Mariners are 27-29 for the year and are 13-14 on the road.
So what is troubling the Mariners? They are one of the worst-hitting teams in baseball at .228. I think that eventually turns around, but for now, they are struggling. Their team ERA is keeping them afloat at 3.58, and a strong 1.22 WHIP helps too.
Logan Gilbert hasn't been fully locked in, going 2-4 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He has, however, been awesome on the road with a 1.19 ERA. In fact, he has allowed just three earned runs over four road starts. He faced the Athletics once this season and allowed three earned runs over four innings. Overall, the Athletics are just 20-for-108 against him in their at-bats.
The Athletics are about where we should've expected them. Are they competitive? Yes. Are they ready to make a postseason run? Probably not. They are 27-28, and as mentioned, they are in a division that seems like no one wants to win.
I have mentioned this before, but the Athletics are on a good path. Most of their timeline seems to align with when they have a permanent home in Las Vegas, so it will be interesting to see what they do now that we are heading into trade season.
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Their pitching staff will need to be addressed at some point. They have a 4.33 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP as a team, which means there is a lot of traffic on the basepaths.
Today, they send out Jeffrey Springs, who owns a 3-5 record, 4.11 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has been worse on the home rubber than the road starts this season. His home ERA is a full run higher. The Athletics have also lost four straight Springs starts. He hasn't faced the Mariners this season, but has been good against them overall, holding them to a .197 average in 71 at-bats.
None of the Mariners or Athletics have great numbers against the opposing starter, so that makes me think the edge here is the under through five innings. I think both starters should be able to keep the opponent's bats at bay. I'll take under 4.5 through five innings.
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I'm also going to back the Mariners to win this game at -130. They took the first two games of the series, and the Athletics are bad at home. I also think Seattle has a better starter, and Gilbert has been great on the road this season.
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