ROBERT HARDMAN: Move over Binface... this obscure election could be the one to supercharge a Tory revival - and stop the loony-Left Greens taking over crime-hit south London

Published: 01:01, 24 August 2026 | Updated: 02:35, 24 August 2026 True, it is not quite up there with the recent high-profile by-elections in Clacton (Farage v Binface) or Gorton (Greens v Reform), let alone Andy Burnham's victory-cum-coronation in Makerfield. But the 2026 by-election season is far from over. This Thursday, as we enter the doldrums of the bank holiday weekend, a little-noticed poll in a corner of south London may end up reverberating not just across the capital but across Britain. For just a few thousand voters in the Trinity ward of the London Borough of Wandsworth not only have it in their grasp to restore Tory control over what was once known as 'Margaret Thatcher's favourite council', they could also shape the country's direction of travel as our political parties enter a possibly seismic round of annual party conferences. Amid renewed speculation that Andy Burnham may be preparing for a snap election, a Tory win would show that Kemi Badenoch is continuing to make inroads into an overwhelmingly Left-leaning capital. Back in May's local elections, when all eyes were on the national Reform surge which spooked Labour into unseating Sir Keir Starmer as PM, few people paid much attention to modest gains made by the Tories. One was the recapture of the City of Westminster, a once-mighty Tory citadel which had gone over to Labour in 2022. Another erstwhile Tory stronghold which had also fallen into Labour hands in 2022 was Wandsworth, once famous for the lowest council tax in Britain, making it the apple of Mrs Thatcher's eye. In this year's elections, it was nearly – but not quite – a Tory gain when the Conservatives won 29 seats to Labour's 28. The Tories still managed to take charge but only thanks to the casting vote of the borough's solitary independent councillor. The recent resignation of a Labour councillor in Wandsworth's Trinity ward has left a gap which will be filled in Thursday's by-election. If Shirin Georgiani can hold the seat for Labour, then nothing changes and the Tories continue to run the borough as a minority administration. If they win, however, they will have overall control.  A Tory win would show that Kemi Badenoch is continuing to make inroads into an overwhelmingly Left-leaning capital, writes Robert Hardman Kemi has visited the Tory stronghold which fell into Labour hands in 2022 - Wandsworth, in south London - which was once famous for the lowest council tax in Britain It will be a sign that the Opposition's 'Badenoch bounce' is continuing after a summer of tumultuous change in Downing Street. Little wonder that both the main parties are working hard to woo just 8,000 voters within half a square mile of reasonably affluent residential streets. What makes it more interesting is that Wandsworth sits right next to the London Borough of Lambeth. The two councils also straddle the substantial residential area of Clapham, often on either side of the same road. Yet while Wandsworth increasingly leans to the Right, Lambeth is now one of the most Left-wing councils in the country, thanks to the Green administration which took charge in May. No wonder Clapham is feeling a tad schizophrenic. Since going Green, Lambeth Council has thus far made two headline-grabbing decisions. First, it announced its refusal to co-operate with Home Office crackdowns on illegal immigration in Lambeth, preferring to link up with other Green councils to create a 'corridor of sanctuary' for migrants. Second, it has said it will ignore the Supreme Court's ruling on sex and allow biological men identifying as women to continue using female-only spaces. The council's selective regard for legality is reflected in a growing sense of lawlessness across the area. In July, a 22-year-old man was stabbed to death on Clapham High Street. Two months earlier, a 17-year-old was stabbed at a teenage 'meet-up' on Clapham Common organised via TikTok. Most alarming of all, just days ago, was the murder of 25-year-old bus driver, Auguste-Marie Bile-aka Amoa. He was shot dead on Willington Road, while another man received a gunshot wound. Police investigations continue. The shootings occurred just yards from The Landor, a gastropub popular with the young professional crowd who have pushed the price of a one-bedroom flat in the area to £500,000. However, once-fashionable, happy-go-lucky Clapham no longer feels very happy – or lucky. Next door in Wandsworth, the council is moving in the opposite direction. The new Tory-led administration has pledged to hire 24 extra police officers with its neighbourhood levy on developers. The Tory candidate in the upcoming council by-election is Otto Jacobsson, 34, a Swedish-born head of a digital communications firm. He says he only got involved in local politics to improve the basics, pointing to a simple issue last winter when a defective light meant women were afraid to walk down an alley from the Tube and had to make a seven-minute detour.  'We kept complaining about one light but it took the Labour council weeks to fix it,' he says. 'I think across London there's a sense that people are fed up with the level of crime generally. We just want to make people feel safer and keep council tax down.' Keeping the tax down will soon be much harder thanks to the Labour Government's 'Fairer Funding Review'. This has ruled that six councils with low council tax rates (mainly richer, more efficient ones) will have their funding from central government slashed in order to divert more funds to poorer, less efficient authorities. Wandsworth is facing a loss of £84million from its budget, making a massive spike in its council tax bills inevitable. Clearly, it is a disincentive to running an efficient council, but the challenge for the Tories will be making residents understand that sudden council tax increases are down to Andy Burnham's ministers and not the town hall. That's why senior Tories, including Kemi Badenoch, have been out in Wandsworth, putting an emphasis on law and order, in contrast to crime in neighbouring Lambeth. They point to a video of Lambeth's new head of 'Safer, Thriving Neighbourhoods', Green councillor Jonathan Bartley, proudly pointing to street graffiti saying, 'All Migrants Welcome'.  'I've launched a review of all council services to make sure we are not co-operating with immigration enforcement,' he says. Andrew Gilligan, former mayoral adviser to Boris Johnson and Senior Fellow at the think-tank Policy Exchange, points out: 'Here you have a leading member of a council admiring illegal graffiti and celebrating illegal migration by refusing to work with the authorities. That sends out a pretty strong message that you regard law-breaking as a form of social justice.' A spokesman for Lambeth Council defends its refusal to assist crackdowns on illegal migration, saying: 'It was police bodies who concluded that immigration information sharing causes significant harm, damages confidence and creates barriers to accessing public services, including the reporting of crime. Lambeth Council is following their lead.' Over at Wandsworth town hall, Tory cabinet member Matt Corner rolls his eyes. He points to photos of brazen illegal street trading just over the Wandsworth/Lambeth border in the Nine Elms area. 'You have illegal street trading run by organised crime gangs in broad daylight. We keep asking Lambeth to do something but it has a council that's not interested in co-operating with the police.' A Lambeth spokesman insists the council has been asking for more officers, adding: 'We strongly support on-the-ground community policing which is built on relationships, community confidence and local knowledge.' This tiny area of London represents a fascinating faultline in current British politics. All of which explains why so much depends on a handful of residents in Trinity ward on Thursday. More than a century after the phrase was first used as a synonym for public opinion, the 'Man [or Woman] on the Clapham Omnibus' is about to speak again.