Red Sox backed to beat Royals through five innings thanks to major pitching mismatch on the mound

It was a fairly average day in baseball yesterday. I had two main plays and some player props. The first play was between the Reds and the Phillies, with Cincinnati winning in the first five innings. They tied through five, so it was a wash. But, I did hit two player props, giving some profit. Unfortunately, the Guardians broke out the bats yesterday and took all of that away. I'm switching to a different series here as the Red Sox take on the Royals.

The Boston Red Sox are struggling to begin the season, and they've already made a move within their clubhouse. They fired manager Alex Cora, which was a bit of a surprise. I think the team was probably acting a little quicker than they needed to, but maybe they thought the shakeup would turn things around. It has worked for the Phillies, who made the same move. However, it hasn't worked for the Red Sox. They are in last place in the division and just 20-27 for the season.

They do have some reason to be encouraged about today's outing. They have their offseason signing, and arguably their best pitcher going today in Ranger Suarez. For the year, Suarez is 2-2 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. It is still early, but this is the best WHIP of Suarez's career. He also has his best ERA since he was a mixture of a reliever and a starter. He has been solid on the road, despite it being just three starts. In 18.1 innings, he has allowed just 11 hits and four earned runs. He hasn't allowed a run in his past 17.1 innings, and actually has five starts with no earned runs allowed, and three with four earned runs allowed. Royals hitters are batting .286 against Suarez.

Coming into this season, the American League Central looked like a battle between the Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. Two teams have winning records in the division: the Guardians and the Chicago White Sox. The Minnesota Twins are above the Royals and Tigers. That should give you a bit of a picture of just how bad this year has been for the Royals. The good news is that the division is still jumbled up, and the Royals are just 6.5 games back.

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Their statistics are actually pretty decent as a team, so it might just be a matter of time before the wins start coming. They probably could use a bit of help in the pitching department, as the team has a 4.26 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Bailey Falter is making a start today for the club. He has thrown 5.1 innings, allowing six earned runs on 11 hits and three walks. Falter has, well, faltered since coming over to the Royals last year. He has made seven total appearances since last year and has allowed 10 walks, 31 hits and 21 earned runs over 17.1 innings. Falter has allowed three hits to Red Sox hitters in 23 at-bats, so maybe there is a chance for a good outing.

Even though Falter has decent numbers against the Red Sox, I'm not betting on it happening today. The Red Sox and Royals are both fairly average. However, there is a major pitching disparity on the mound today. We've seen that Suarez is either completely locked in or it is a struggle to the tune of four earned runs. I'm backing him to be locked in. I prefer to take them through five at -125.

I don't see any player props that stand out today, so I'll skip those for this game.

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