Rangers vs Red Sox preview: Why Sonny Gray gives Boston a rare edge in a lost season at home

I've taken a lot of tough beats this year on the diamond. I'm not complaining or anything, it has been a decent season overall, but the frustrating ones have been when I take the first five innings under and it loses and the full game cashes. I was on the right side of one of those finally as I took the under for the first five of the Giants vs. Nationals, and they scored two runs through five innings, but 22 runs combined in the game. Let's try and stay on the good side of luck as the Rangers take on the Red Sox.

The Texas Rangers are currently sitting at .500 and still within just one game of the division. I've said it before, and I'll probably say it all season — no one seems to want to win or run away with the American League West division. Most of us assumed it was a foregone conclusion that the Seattle Mariners were going to stroll into the postseason without much resistance. That still might happen but the four teams at the top are all within 5 games of each other, and the Angels are only 8.5 back.

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This would be a good time for Texas to take advantage of winnable games. They are fairly average on the road, but do have a sub-.500 record. Going today for them is Jack Leiter, who has a 3-5 record, 4.69 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. None of those numbers, obviously, are very impressive. I don't think they are terrible, either, but you probably look at a better opportunity to beat him than teammates like Jacob deGrom or Nathan Eovadli. He has been slightly worse on the road this season than at home, and his current form isn't great, allowing four or more earned runs in three of four starts. Red Sox hitters are batting just .200 against him in 20 at-bats.

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The Red Sox are a disaster this season, but rumor has it they still believe they can turn the team around this year. They are just 27-39, and have been ugly at home with a 10-21 record. It is hard to pinpoint exactly what is wrong with Boston. The stats tell one part of the story, but are the players all struggling because the team dismissed Alex Cora, or is it something else? Maybe it is just a down year? The fact remains that it doesn't matter — they just haven't been good.

If they do decide to offload players instead of add to their team, expect today's starter, Sonny Gray, to be at the top of the list. Gray has value, has been traded multiple times and continues to be an option that would help would-be playoff teams. He's been great for the Red Sox, going 7-1 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He also has been very good at home this season, posting a 2.52 ERA. He has turned in three quality starts in his last six outings, and has allowed no more than three earned runs in any of those starts. Rangers hitters are batting just .195 against him in 82 at-bats. 

This should be a game that is winnable for the Red Sox. You have the better pitcher on the mound, and get to play at what should be a home-field advantage. It doesn't seem like the Red Sox are impacted as much when he starts as they are when someone else does. They have 10 wins at home, and four of them have come in Gray's starts.

I like Leiter, but you're having him go against a tougher opponent. I think Boston wins this game, but I'd be surprised if this was a high-scoring affair. Personally, I'll take Boston at -136 for the game, but I'd consider taking the under 8.5 if you're into it. I'll stick with just the one play for myself.