Rangers vs Cardinals prediction: Why St Louis is the moneyline pick despite Jacob deGrom on the mound

Just like your favorite athlete, your favorite (or at times, least favorite) sports bettor goes through slumps. That would be me at the moment, and while it sucks to admit, I do like to let readers know when I'm hot, or when I'm cold. Right now, it might be in your best interest to fade me. However, it doesn't tend to last long, and I expect to snap out of it as the Rangers take on the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Texas Rangers are one of those teams that I look at and don't see anything overly impressive with their roster. I like their team, but I don't find their lineup to be full of great hitters or an intimidating presence.

Sure, Corey Seager is very good and a former World Series MVP. Jake Burger is having a nice campaign so far, and Josh Jung is hitting the ball well. However, they just seem to be an average offensive team overall. On the other hand, that rotation of theirs is something that can be fierce.

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On Monday night, they get one of the best pitchers of his generation, Jacob deGrom, to take the bump. DeGrom is one of those guys who used to be so elite that every five days, your team could expect a win. I wouldn't quite classify him as that at the moment, but he is still a very strong starter. He is 3-4 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP for the year. The problem is that, for whatever reason, he was demolished on the road in May. Three road starts, 16 earned runs over 15.1 innings. His two home starts? Thirteen innings and two earned runs.

The Cardinals are infuriating. I'm a Chicago Cubs fan, so maybe I feel differently about them than most guys. However, after a few years of poorly performing teams, they finally hit the reset button on the roster. During the offseason, they traded away not only their best pitcher, Sonny Gray, but also the two biggest bats in their lineup (even if they might not have been the best players anymore). This year, in what was supposed to be a rebuild has turned into success for now with the club over .500.

Their pitching staff hasn't exactly been elite, but they've been good enough. Today, they have a younger guy on the mound who has put together a nice start to the 2026 campaign. Michael McGreevy has a 3-4 record with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He has been even better at home this year and owns a 1.93 home ERA. His last two starts haven't been the cleanest -- nine innings and eight earned runs allowed. However, he only gave up nine earned runs in May.

This should be a bit of a pitcher's duel. Sure, deGrom looks a bit rough at the moment, but that doesn't mean he is going to struggle for the entire season on the road. I think any time he toes the rubber, he can make the adjustments needed and deliver a great performance.

In this game, I'm taking a shot on the Cardinals to win it. They haven't been great at Busch Stadium, but McGreevy has been. On the other side, deGrom has been worse on the road, and it isn't just May. I'll take the Cardinals to win this on the moneyline, but I wouldn't blame you for betting the under either.

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