Putin could 'send armed group to occupy NATO territory within weeks', warns US intelligence

By WILL STEWART and SABRINA PENTY, FOREIGN NEWS REPORTER Published: 09:43, 7 August 2026 | Updated: 09:43, 7 August 2026 Russia could send an armed group to occupy NATO territory within weeks, US intelligence has said.  The warning comes despite Vladimir Putin facing fresh humiliation as Ukraine's strikes intensify and move further into Russia.  Until now, US intelligence believed the Kremlin dictator would not risk provoking NATO while fighting in Ukraine. But this assessment changed this year, according to The Wall Street Journal. NATO members believe Putin is already conducting probing attacks to test and fracture the alliance.  Western fighter jets have been scrambled three times in the last few weeks to shoot down drones, while Ukraine recently intercepted a drone that had earlier crossed into Romanian airspace. And fighter jets were scrambled over 250 per cent more in July compared with a year ago as Russia continues to probe the West's defences.  The sharp increase in the monthly figure for July compared with the same month in 2025 highlights Putin's aggressive stance.  Russia could send an armed group to occupy NATO territory within weeks, US intelligence has warned File image: A fire breaks out following massive Russian ballistic missile strikes in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on August 5, 2026, amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine 'The numbers do not lie,' said a post by NATO's Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum. 'The possible threats range from a cyberattack on a NATO country or sending unmarked armed groups to occupy territory to a limited incursion on the alliance's eastern flank,' said the WSJ report. The time frame for a Russian move is between this autumn and 2029, according to U.S. intelligence assessments. 'We are always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios,' said NATO spokesman Col. Martin O'Donnell. 'NATO is watching and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary.' The warnings come amid US concern about a shortfall of munitions after supplies to Ukraine and use in the Middle East conflict. One theory is Putin could grab a city or region in Poland or one of the three Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all NATO members which have strongly backed Ukraine. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda warned recently: 'I cannot deny that we have such information and that it concerns kinetic operations. File image: Smoke billows from a warehouse, after deadly Ukrainian drone attacks, as per regional governors, in Elektrostal, Moscow Region, Russia File image: A man walks past burned-out cars and a residential building that went up in flames during a recent Russian strike are scattered in a residential area, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, July 30, 2026 'Not on a large scale, but targeted kinetic operations that are very likely to be directed against critical infrastructure.' Russian opposition politician and chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov said: 'I think the chances [are] that he'll cross NATO borders — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, just a small incursion using drones. 'I think the chances are growing because Putin needs a winning narrative and Ukraine doesn't offer it.' All three Baltic states have strengthened their border defences against Russia and close ally Belarus.